It’s not the biggest event or the best card you will ever see in the UFC, but UFC On Fuel TV 10 does have some interesting fights. A couple of veteran MMA fighters in Antonio Rodrigo Noguerira, aka Big Nog, and Fabricio Werdum, battle it out in front of their home town fans the heavyweight headlining fight. This is really the only big fight on the card, but the final of season 2 of Ultimate Fighter: Brazil is also headlining the card.
Big Nog vs Werdum
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +260 (5Dimes)
Fabricio Werdum -285 (Bookmaker)
The two The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil season 2 coaches headline the card and each has had success lately, with both fighters coming off wins.
Big Nog is coming off a submission victory of Dave Herman, but considering Dave has lost his last three fights (Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Struve) in decisive fashion and hasn’t beat anyone of note in the UFC this isn’t that impressive of a victory. Before that Nogueira lost to Frank Mir, who is still considered one of the top 10 heavyweights in the world, by a first round submission. He beat Brendan Schaub by KO in August of 2011 and lost to the current champion, Cain Velasquez via KO in February of 2010. Basically Big Nog’s win’s haven’t been impressive, but his losses have also been to some of the top fighters in the division.
Werdum on the other hand had two big wins last year. The first being over Roy Nelson, who is now in the conversation as one of the top heavyweights in the world, and then Mike Russo a few months later. He hasn’t fought in a year since the Russow fight. Those were Werdum’s first two fights in the octagon, with him being a top fighter in Strikeforce before that. He defeated the likes of Big Foot Silva, who just lost a title fight, and Fedor Emelianenko, before losing to Alistair Overeem via decision in his last Strikeforce fight.
Looking at it just based on passed results, Werdum is the favourite, as he should be. That said, these two did fight in 2006, with Nogueira winning a Pride fight via decision. These two could easily fight to a decision and when this happens it’s really anyones fight to win. Nogueira has done very well in decision fights in his MMA career and his recent losses don’t indicate that he will be unable to keep up with Werdum. I like Big Nog in this one to pull off the upset and to more than double my money.
Play: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +260 (5Dimes)
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Chris will be back next week with his UFC 161 predictions.
Anotnio Rodrigo Nogueira • Fabricio Werdum • Fuel TV • ufc