Last weeks UFC 210 was one of the weirdest pay-per-view events I’ve seen in recent memory. The two main events (and really the only big fights on the card) were both very, very strange. First, we had all of the controversy surrounding the knee to the head of Weidman by Mousasi and how the ref and the commission just really had no idea what they were doing. That said, I did pick Mousasi in that fight, so I wasn’t totally upset and it did look like Mousasi would have cruised to victory at that point. Then in the main event we have Anthony Johnson employing probably the most idiotic game plan I’ve ever seen against DC. A friend of mine questioned whether he was trying to lose with that game plan after it became clear he wanted that to be his last fight and I think that’s a great point. Overall, a very strange night, but on to the next one.
This weeks UFC on Fox card in Kansas City is actually far better top to bottom, in my opinion, than last weeks pay-per-view. At the top of the card you have Demetrious Johnson, the pound for pound best fighter in the world, looking to tie Anderson Silva’s record for most title defenses against a very game Wilson Reis. In the co-main you have an amazing fight between Rose Namajunas and Michell Waterson and in the third fight on the main card you have Jacare Souza fighting Robert Whittaker, both of who are contenders at middleweight. That’s already one more elite fight than last weeks card. And then you can add in some other solid name value fighters like Jeremy Stephens, Roy Nelson and Aljamain Sterling and you can see that this will be a fun night of fights.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Demetrious Johnson vs Wilson Reis
I’m going to be quick with this breakdown because I really don’t think DJ loses this fight unless he gets caught in some strange position in a scramble, which is highly unlikely. DJ is simply the best fighter in the UFC and there are several levels between him and a guy like Reis. DJ is better in every facet of the game except possibly Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling is so strong that I don’t see Reis ever even getting a chance to use his grappling.
I personally won’t be betting much on this fight because it’s very scary laying almost 8 to 1 on a guy who is still going to be in a fight where anything can happen. But that said, I think DJ wins this fight 9 times out of 10.
Play: Johnson -750
Michelle Waterson vs Rose Namajunas
Waterson made quick work of Paige VanZant in her last fight and that really put her in the limelight heading into this fight. Don’t get me wrong, Waterson is a veteran who has proven herself in this sport and it was her absence due to injury, while the strawweight division really took off that kept her out of the spotlight for so long. That said, going from Paige to Rose is a massive jump in skill. Paige hasn’t looked good since 2015 (even her KO of Rawlings was a fight she was losing to that point) so I don’t put much stock in Waterson being able to outclass her that night. Michelle is a very solid all-around fighter, especially on the mat, but I think her time might have been 5 years ago when she was Invicta champion and nobody really knew about the lower weight divisions in women’s MMA.
Rose will be the bigger fighter here, which should allow her to keep the fight standing and I think she has the far better striking than Waterson. Also, if the fight does go to the ground, Rose is very dangerous on the mat and she’s also reeled in some of her wildness to avoid poor positions, which she could find herself in a few years ago. Overall, I just like the poise of Rose and I think she’s ready to take that next step in her career and get a title shot.
Play: Namajunas -134
Jacare Souza vs Robert Whittaker
Souza has made quick work of both Belfort and Boetsch since his split decision loss to Yoel Romero back in December of 2015. If you check MMADecisions.com the media actually had Souza winning that fight 12 times vs only 2 media members for Yoel Romero, so it could easily be argued that Souza is actually the best middleweight on the planet right now (we all know it’s not Bisping).
Whittaker is on his own path to the title with 6 straight wins, including a nice TKO win over Derek Brunson in his last fight.
On the feet I would actually give the edge to Whittaker. He has very patient, but committed striking and he’s improved his striking defense as well. That said, it’s only a slight edge and if this fight gets to the mat Whittaker will be in Jacare’s world. Souza has finished 3 of his last 4 wins by submission and is widely considered to be won of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the entire UFC.
This is a close fight on the feet, but a one-sided fight on the mat. I’m going with Jacare.
Play: Souza -240