The UFC caps off its 2012 Fox season with what on paper seems to be the most complete card they’ve served up on network television thus far. The original Fox card – featuring the Heavyweight Title bout between Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez – may have had more cache than this one, but Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson and challenger Nate Diaz along with some well-constructed match-ups featuring two of the sport’s most enduring stars make this event the first must-see UFC event on Fox since their debut.
This card will mark the first time that a UFC on Fox headliner has made a return trip to the network, and it should go a long way in determining how the UFC uses the platform to market fighters in the future. It also doesn’t hurt that this card comes when the full promotional power of Fox (re: advertising centred around NFL Sunday) can help draw in viewers.
Business aside, the fights should enthrall viewers regardless of their familiarity with MMA. Henderson and Diaz are two of the more consistently entertaining fighters in the sport, and their styles should make for a fantastic bout. In the other headline bouts, Mauricio Rua and BJ Penn face two of the top prospects in their respective divisions, as Alexander Gustafsson and Rory MacDonald attempt to build their own legend on the backs of two of the greatest fighters in the sport’s history.
With the main event being a fight that could really go either way (I personally favour Diaz, but can see clear paths to victory for Henderson), I find myself far more confident in both the outcome and method of the other two big fights.
Odds
5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event:
MacDonald wins by 3 round decision +130
Not MacDonald by 3 round decision -160
Gustafsson wins by 3 round decision +120
Not Gustafsson by 3 round decision -150
These are two prop betting lines that I am particularly interested in, but you can visit 5Dimes.eu to see all of the lines for UFC on Fox 5.
Predictions
Both MacDonald and Gustafsson are sizable favourites in their fights this weekend, despite being the less proven competitor in each bout. I agree with both guys being the favourites in their bouts, but there’s no sense in betting either at their money line price (-280 for MacDonald and -230 for Gustafsson).
Why?
Well, I really only see one avenue to victory for both fighters. Penn and Rua are two of the most difficult fighters to finish in MMA, and the skill sets possessed by their opponents don’t capitalize on their weaknesses to the point that I can picture a stoppage.
In the MacDonald/Penn fight, the risk for Rory lies in the first round. It certainly wouldn’t be out of the question for Penn to catch MacDonald with a big shot early and take his back to finish him off. However, in every fight Penn has fought at 170 pounds he ends up getting overwhelmed physically after the first 5 minutes. I expect the 2nd and 3rd rounds of this bout to look an awful lot like the latter stages of Penn’s fight against Jon Fitch, with less damage done by MacDonald. With a fight that has a slight risk of losing early, but an excellent chance of playing out in a manner that can win money at + odds, I think you have to take that bet.
The Gustafsson/Rua fight is almost a carbon copy, but rather than the Swede beating Shogun with wrestling and ground and pound, he will employ a style of striking from the outside. The same risk exists with Shogun that exists with Penn. He could catch Gustafsson early, and with his still tremendous power that could spell the end of all the talk about Gustafsson being Jon Jones’ next title challenger. After those few early minutes, we’re well aware of Rua’s MO these days. He no longer has the movement that allows him to stalk his opponents relentlessly, nor does he have the cardio to do so. This is going to result in Gustafsson doing his Dominick Cruz impression for 15 minutes while Shogun looks as unimpressive as he did against Brandon Vera.
Plays
Rory MacDonald defeats BJ Penn via Decision @ +130 (5dimes.eu)
Alexander Gustafsson defeats Mauricio Rua via Decision @ +120 (5dimes.eu)
Alexander Gustafsson • Benson Henderson • BJ Penn • Mauricio Rua • Nate Diaz • Rory MacDonald • UFC on Fox
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