I’m crossing my fingers that nothing happens to either of the main event fighters between now and Saturday so we finally get to see the rematch between Barao and Dillashaw.
TJ absolutely dominated Barao back in May of 2014. It was the Champions first loss in 32 fights, including 7 UFC wins and 4 title fights. The UFC was finally starting to put money into promoting Barao when it all came crashing down. Dillashaw’s movement was impeccable all fight and he picked Barao apart.
The UFC originally gave Renan Barao an immediate rematch with Dillashaw, but Barao had to be admitted to the hospital after trouble cutting weight. The fight was off and Dillashaw ended up beating a UFC newcomer, Joe Soto on the same card. Dillashaw hasn’t fought since. A nearly full year away from the Octagon as champion. This is partly due to breaking his rib while training for an April rematch with Barao. Both fighters have been forced out of 2 scheduled rematches due to injury. Here’s hoping nothing happens this week.
Miesha Tate vs Jessica Eye is the co-main event, while Barboza vs Felder and Lauzon vs Gomi round out the main card. It’s really not a very deep card, but there are a lot of interesting fights that I’ll definitely be watching.
Renan Barao vs TJ Dillashaw
I’ve been waiting for this fight for a full year. The dominant performance by Dillashaw over such a dominant champion in Barao had me as surprised as anyone a year and two months ago. Since then both fighters have only had to take on unranked opponents and both actually had a more difficult time with these opponents than many thought they would. It took Dillashaw until the 5th round to finish Joe Soto, but to be fair he only found out he was fighting the newcomer the day before the fight. Barao on the other hand knew he was fighting Mitch Gagnon, but still took until the third round to finish the fight.
All of that said, we know what we can get out of Barao. He’s been on the top of the division for so long and he’s beaten top opponents such as Urijah Faber #4 (twice), Eddie Wineland #6 and Michael McDonald #5. The division has been somewhat paused for the last year while we wait for this rematch to take place.
I’m surprised that Dillashaw is such a big favourite. Yes, he did absolutely destroy Barao for five rounds in their first meeting, but that’s just one fight. Dillashaw doesn’t really have any other big wins. He lost to John Dodson in the Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale and also lost a split decision to Raphael Assuncao who is now ranked #3 in the division. He hasn’t beaten a single Bantamweight Fighter currently ranked in the top 15 other than Barao. Was it a fluke?
I don’t think it was a fluke, but I also think Dillashaw overachieved and that fight, while Barao underachieved. I’m expect Barao to be more ready for the footwork of Dillashaw and not just stock forward with his chin out in this fight. Barao knows how to win and I’m expecting him to get his belt back with a big win due to some tactical adjustments this Saturday.
It also helps that he’s a pretty big dog heading into this fight.
Play: Barao +180 @ BetOnline.ag
Miesha Tate vs Jessica Eye
This is the only other fight on the card that I’m going to look at in detail. I’m a Miesha Tate fan and I’m rooting for her to continue this win streak in order to get one last crack at Ronda Rousey. She’s won decision victories over Liz Carmouche #10, Rin Nakai and Sara McMann #4 since losing in the third round to Rousey in December of 2013. I still think Tate is in that second echelon of the Women’s Bantamweight Division with Cat Zingano, especially after the uninspired Kaufman vs Davis fight at UFC 186. She will have to prove it though against #5 ranked Jessica Eye to stay there.
Jessica Eye is a small fighter for the weight class, but she is talented and she’s done ok against some top fighters in the division. She beat Sarah Kaufman by split decision (though this was overturned after Eye tested positive for marijuana) and lost to Alexis Davis by split decision. She then knocked out Leslie Smith to earn this fight with Tate. Other than Davis and Kaufman, Eye really hasn’t faced top opponents in her MMA career. Tate on the other hand has only faced fighters near the top of the division for some time.
I expect Tate’s experience and size to win out in this fight and she will be one step closer to another rematch with Rousey.
Play: Tate -188
There’s a lot of other decent fights on the card. Visit BetOnline.ag to see the odds for the entire card and place your bets.
Barao • Dillashaw • Eye • Tate