We’ve now had a week to digest the massive UFC 207 card where we saw Nunes KO Ronda Rousey and Garbrandt outclass Dominick Cruz in the two title fights. There was so much to talk about coming out of that event I’m actually glad we had a week off from UFC. But now it’s time to get back into the swing of things with a UFC Fight Night event in Phoenix this weekend. The event is set to take place on Sunday evening to avoid competing directly with the NFL playoffs on the weekend. It’s a fun card with a title fight featuring BJ Penn coming back to face rising star Yair Rodriguez in the main event.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
BJ Penn vs Yair Rodriguez
BJ Penn announced he was coming back to make a run at the featherweight title back in January of 2016. Since then he’s had fights with Dennis Siver, Cole Miller and Ricardo Lamas all fall through. This time he booked a bout with rising star Yair Rodriguez, who I would argue is the most difficult fight of all four of those opponents. It’s a very tough fight to come back to because I don’t even think Penn’s experience will help him out that much against such a young, dynamic and unorthodox striker.
Rodriguez won The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America back in 2014 and has since went on a 5 fight winning streak in the UFC. He’s a very raw striker, but he has such an unorthodox style that he’s very hard to plan for. He’s also so great in the scramble that I don’t expect Penn to be able to get this fight to the mat.
Rodriguez is a huge favorite in this fight, but rightfully so. Penn hasn’t won a fight since 2010. He’s 38 years old and was absolutely dominated in his 2014 outing against Frankie Edgar that ended in an Edgar TKO.
I really don’t expect him to be able to go five rounds against a striker as dynamic as Rodriguez. Yair should be able to add a legend to his portfolio of UFC wins.
Play: Rodriguez -460
Marcin Held vs Joe Lauzon
I’ve been impressed with Lauzon of late. He’s the ultimate gatekeeper and in this fight he’s against a veteran Bellator fighter that lost a fight to Diego Sanchez in his first UFC Fight. I think Held’s most likely path to victory is via submission and I simply don’t see a veteran like Lauzon giving him anything on the mat. Look to Lauzon to win a decision here.
Play: Lauzon -135
Augusto Mendes vs Frankie Saenz
I think Saenz is overrated based on a fight against Urijah Faber where he kept it close against the legend, but ultimately lost. Before that fight Saenz had won his first 3 fights in the UFC, but they were all over fairly weak competition, except for Iuri Alcantara. I just think the 36 year old Saenz may be getting too much respect while he’s relatively unproven still.
Mendes is another unproven guy who lost his one UFC fight via KO in the first round to Cody Garbrandt. Now that Garbrandt is the champion that loss doesn’t look so bad on his record.
If Mendes can get this fight to the mat I think his jiu-jitsu is on a superior level to Saenz and he should be able to go for a submission or at least control Frankie and put him in bad positions.
This is a very interesting fight, but I’m leaning towards Mendes in this one.
Play: Mendes +126
John Moraga vs Sergio Pettis
I’m a big believer in Sergio Pettis and expect him to rise up the rankings this year in the UFC. He was caught by a wild haymaker from Ryan Benoit in a fight he was dominating three fights ago, but that’s his lone loss in his last 5 fights with him routinely outclassing his opponents. I expect the same in this fight with Moraga. He should be able to light up Moraga on the feet, while avoiding going to the mat. The only way I really see him possibly losing is a submission and I think he’s too smart these days to allow that.
Play: Pettis -136
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