It’s been a pretty quiet month in the UFC. I haven’t gotten an article up since the UFC 185 card that had a couple of new champions crowned. I personally was on both of the current champs, so my picks didn’t pan out in that one. For this Mendes vs Lamas fight night card I feel like I have a much better read on the fights. It’s a really good card for a Fight Night card with Lamas, Mendes, Iaquinta, Chiesa, Guida, Poirier and more all on the card. Plenty of household names in the MMA community.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 7-13 for -9.65 units.
Ricardo Lamas vs Chad Mendes
I personally think that Chad Mendes is given too much credit in this division. Jose Aldo even went as far as to call himself the King, Mendes the Prince and McGregor the joker of the featherweight division. Yes, Mendes had a strong fight with Aldo in their rematch, but the fight was never in question for the champ. And apart from his two losses to Aldo, Mendes really hasn’t fought top opponents in the division. Looking at the rankings, in his 5 wins between the two Aldo fights, Mendes only fought 1 fighter in the top 10 of the division and that was #8 Nik Lentz, who he beat by decision. Guida and Elkins are #12 and #14 respectively, but looking at his opponents you can make a case that the UFC was giving Mendes opponents with the hope of giving him another title shot. Now, Mendes will actually have to face some other top competitors in the division and I don’t think he will fare as well as the odds are indicating.
Lamas has wins over Cub Swanson via submission (ranked #5) and most recently Dennis Bermudez via a dominant submission (ranked #6). Lamas is 6-1 in his 7 UFC fights with his only loss coming to Aldo via decision. He has fought more difficult opponents than Mendes, but doesn’t get the respect because he doesn’t get the quick knockouts that Mendes was getting against weak opposition. This is a great opportunity to bet on Lamas in this one.
Play: Lamas +350 @ 5Dimes.eu
Jorge Masvidal vs Al Iaquinta
Iaquinta was able to finish off Joe Lauzon at UFC 183 in January and that has earned him a shot at Masvidal, who I feel is under ranked in the Lightweight division. Masvidal is currently ranked #14 and Iaquinta is ranked #15, so a dominant performance by either man will shoot them up the rankings.
Neither fighter has beaten a man ranked above them in the division, but Masvidal has done very well in his Strikeforce and UFC career since March of 2011. He has a record of 8-2 with his only losses coming to Gilbert Melendez (ranked #4) and Rustam Khabilov who was tearing through the division before a couple losses dropped him from the rankings.
All of that said I actually tink that Iaquinta has more upside and has improved more of late than Masvidal. He’s got 3 knockout wins since September of 2014 and this includes wins over Ross Pearson and Joe Lauzon, both tough fighters in the division. I think his hands will be too fast for Masvidal in this one and Iaquinta will continue his march up the rankings.
Play: Iaquinta +115 @ 5Dimes.eu
Julianna Pena vs Milana Dudieva
Pena won the first women’s The Ultimate Fighter back in November of 2013 and then an injury forced her out of competition for 2014. I still think that Pena is going to be one of the top women in the division and a few dominant wins should put her into title contention. I think she finishes this fight, likely by knockout, but possible submission after gaining a strong position from her striking.
Play: Pena Inside Distance +175 @ 5Dimes.eu
Those are the three plays I like the most on this card. I’m also leaning towards Dustin Poirier at -185 against Diego Ferreira. I think Poirier will bounce back after his loss to McGregor with a win here. All-in-all this is a great card that I’m looking forward to.
Al Iaquinta • Chad Mendes • Jorge Masvidal • Julianna Pena • Ricardo Lamas