The Jones vs Cormier fight was close to as exciting as was expected, but Jones was able to out grind Cormier in the Championship rounds, and that stamina and will to win is really what won him that fight. Cerrone once again looked like an all-star with his destruction of Myles Jury over 3 rounds and because he was barely touched in that fight, Donald is stepping right back into the cage this coming weekend in Boston. This has to be the first time in a long time, if not ever, that a fighter is fighting again 2 weeks after a win. He stepped up for this fight after Eddie Alvarez had to drop out of the fight due to an illness.
The McGregor vs Siver and Cerrone vs Henderson fights are the main two fights on the cards and both have the potential to set up championship fights down the line for the fighters.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 1-1 for +0.00 units.
I had Cormier in the fight with Jones when I posted my picks for UFC 182, but I had to post those picks two weeks in advance of the fight because I was leaving on vacation. When it got time to actually make my bets I took Cerrone and Tavares, who both eventually won, and left the Jones vs Cormier fight alone because I started to see a Cormier win as being more difficult for the former wrestling star. So in terms of my actual bankroll it was a good night, but I have to stick with my picks from the blog for my record, which means it was a break even night in terms of my posts record for this year.
McGregor vs Siver
The odds on McGregor to win this fight are absolutely ridiculous. He is a -1050 favourite at BetOnline.ag. I think McGregor wins this fight, but at those odds I can’t possibly take him outright. So I looked at the props. McGregor is even better than 1/1 to finish the fight in the first round. I think there’s a good chance that McGregor does finish Siver early, but you have to think that Siver’s plan will be to lengthen the fight against McGregor, who has generally finished his opponents early. Siver could want a battle and that will likely mean just trying not to get finished early. Siver has been finished in the first round on 4 occassions in his MMA career, so it’s not that unheard of, but he did get to the third round against Cub Swanson in July of 2013 and we know how fast Swanson is able to knock out some fighters.
These two fighters aren’t in the same category when it comes to skill, and McGregor should make light work of Siver, but I still think the smart money is on Siver at least getting out of the first round.
On another note, this was really a smart fight for the UFC to put on. They get to have McGregor headline another fight before his title shot for starters, which will bring in a ton of PPV (more than it would if he lost to Aldo and then tried to headline a card). He also is fighting in Boston, which has a large Irish population, and his chances of losing the fight are around only 10% according to the bookies. They must have weighed the chances of a loss and figured they might as well make some cash out of this huge hype draw before really going for it in a fight with Aldo.
My Pick: McGregor Doesn’t Win in Round 1 -105 (5Dimes.eu)
Cerrone vs Henderson
If Cerrone wins this fight it’s great for his career and he almost becomes an instant legend, but many MMA fans are wondering why he took the fight on such short notice. He already has two losses to Benson Henderson back in their WEC days and Henderson’s fast paced style makes it harder for Cerrone to find his range and use his kick boxing. Cerrone has been in great form lately, but I think Henderson could be his kryptonite here.
Henderson finished 1 of their previous fights, while winning a 5 round decision in the other. I think this 3 round fight will go the distance with Henderson controlling most of the action.
My Pick: Henderson by decision +140 (5Dimes.eu)
Benson Henderson • Conor McGregor • Dennis Siver • Donald Cerrone