This past weekends fight night card in Brazil was a success for me. I only bet on the Arlovski KO win and split my bet between a straight up win and a knockout, both of which were paying out huge returns. That win for Arlovski vaults him up the Heavyweight picture and basically brings Silva down to where he really should be in my opinion. This week we have another big heavyweight match up and the winner could potentially fight Arlovksi next as they continue to work their way towards a title shot. Roy Nelson and Mark Hunt are each getting older so this could be either fighters last run towards the title.
There are some other intriguing fights as well including undefeated Myles Jury fighting Takanori Gomi in the co-main event and Miesha Tate fighting Asian fighter Rin Nakai in the only women’s tilt on the card. This early in the week there are only odds for the Nelson vs Hunt fight, but check back because I will be adding other picks to this article as they become available.
2014 Record: 42-25 for +14.51 units.
Roy Nelson vs Mark Hunt
Mark Hunt is coming off a 5 round war with Bigfoot Silva that ended in a draw. That fight bumped both men up the rankings because it was an absolute war, but seeing how easily Arlovski beat Silva last weekend really makes Hunt’s draw a little more concerning. Before that draw Hunt lost to Junior dos Santos in a fight that had him up against the second best man in the division. It was his wins over Ben Rothwell, Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve that pushed Hunt up the division before that though. That said I see both Struve and Kongo as being severely overrated in the division and both have fairly weak chins (Struve has been knocked out by Hunt, Browne, Nelson and JDS within the last five years) and Nelson also has a KO of Kongo.
I’m a little bit surprised that Hunt is a favourite heading into this fight because I don’t see him knocking out Roy Nelson. Nelson has only been knocked out once in his career and that was by Andrei Arlovksi back when Arlovksi was arguably the best heavyweight in the world.
I think Nelson has a good chance at knocking out Mark Hunt and if he doesn’t go with that game plan he may be able to use his bjj to submit the kick boxer. Nelson never wins via decisions and seeing as this is a 5 round battle if it does go the distance I expect Hunt to have won the fight. That said I like Nelson in this one, but I’m willing to take him inside the distance because I don’t think he wins a decision victory.
Take Roy Nelson +177 @ 5Dimes.eu.
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