The UFC is headed to Boston this week for UFC 220, which is setting up to possibly be the biggest PPV event of the first half of 2018. The main event is for the heavyweight title with Francis Ngannou getting a shot at Stipe Miocic. This is the most excited I’ve been for a heavyweight title in a long time with Ngannou looking like a monster in his 6-0 roll through the UFC heavyweight division. Cormier is also back fighting for the light heavyweight title with Volkan Oezdemir.
I’ve added my picks for all of the main card fights below with the odds taken from BetOnline.ag.
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Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
This is the most excited I’ve been for a heavyweight title fight in a long time. Miocic has proven that he is currently the best heavyweight in the division after making defending his belt look easy with first round KO’s of both Overeem and Dos Santos, after also knocking out Werdum in the first round to win the belt.
Those were all great wins, but Ngannou seems like an entirely different animal. Dos Santos looked tentative against Miocic, backing himself into the fence, while Overeem actually caught Stipe before his chin let him down later in the first. Werdum also had a very strange strategy, running at Stipe before ultimately getting countered unconscious. That’s not to say that those aren’t big wins for Stipe, but they are somewhat strange wins over aging fighters. In this tilt he’s fighting a guy on his way up and with punching power that the UFC may have never seen.
I was skeptical of Ngannou at first, but his recent knockouts of Arlovski and Overeem have made me a believer. He’s shown patience in the pocket, while picking his shots. And if those shots touch Stipe’s chin he will go unconscious.
Stipe does get hit and has been wobbled in recent fights. If he gets hit by Ngannou he will be going unconscious. I don’t normally like to take the hype trains, but I’ll make an exception here because I think Ngannou is legit and this is actually a good style matchup for him.
Play: Ngannou -180
Daniel Cormier vs Volkan Oezdemir
Oezdemir is another prospect who has quickly earned a title shot, but his road to the title shot has been much quicker and easier than Ngannou. Yes, he quickly KO’d both Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa, but Cirkunov is showing he may be overhyped, while Manuwa is also overrated in my opinion.
There is still a massive drop off from Cormier/Gustafsson/Johnson at the top of the division, and with Johnson retired and Gustafsson nursing an injury that opened the door up for Oezdemir.
That said, Cormier is too crafty, with too solid of a wrestling base to lose this fight. Of course you have to give Oezdemir a punchers chance because he obviously has fight ending power, but he needs more than that against a guy like Cormier and I don’t think he has it. Cormier should win this fight and get the bad taste of the Jones fight out of his mouth.
Play: Cormier -330
Calvin Kattar vs Shane Burgos
This is a very interesting fight between a couple of guys who I think could move up the featherweight rankings quickly. Kattar absolutely dominated Fili in a decision win in his UFC debut back in July, while Burgos has continued to impress with 3 straight wins in the UFC since joining the promotion in December of 2016.
Kattar is a very technical striker and this was on display against Andre Fili, who is a bit of a flashy guy, but was out of his element standing with a guy like Kattar. Burgos though, is a different type of fighter. Burgos will back Kattar down and not take a backwards step, while looking to land big shots. He is by far the more dangerous fighter in this tilt and I except him to hurt Kattar at points in this fight. He may not be able to finish him because Kattar has very strong defense of his own and has never been knocked out in a his 18 fight career, but I don’t think he will be able to match Burgos in the pocket, which will result in Burgos controlling the middle of the octagon and landing more damaging shots, which should get him the win.
Play: Burgos -130
Gian Villante vs Francimar Barroso
This is a strange fight where I’m not really high on either guy. Villante simply cannot be trusted. He loses fights he shouldn’t lose and really only beats low level fighters. He does have knockout power, but I can’t take him, especially as a favorite, against any UFC caliber opponent.
Barroso is not a great fighter himself, but if he can avoid a knockout from Villante he should be the more active guy and be able to find a way to win a decision.
Play: Barroso +150
Rob Font vs Thomas Almeida
Two young prospects will meet in the PPV opening fight on Saturday. Both guys are very sneaky, fast strikers and I’m excited to see the stand up battle that will take place.
All of that said, I’m going with Thomas Almeida. His hype train hit a wall when he lost to Cody Garbrandt in 2016 and he wasn’t able to get back to the top of the division when he was outclassed on the feet by Jimmie Rivera last July, but he is still an extremely dangerous fighter who can finish the fight at any time. This is a better stylistic matchup for him as well because both Garbrandt and Rivera were both 100% counter strikers. They were able to catch Almeida coming in. In this fight Font won’t simply sit back and wait for Almeida to bring the fight to him. These guys will likely meet in the middle of the octagon and fight it out, which should play into the hands of Almeida.
Play: Almeida -125
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Francis Ngannou • Stipe Miocic • UFC 220 • ufc betting • ufc picks