It’s finally here. The UFC is heading to Madison Square Garden this Saturday in New York City. UFC 205 is probably the best card ever assembled by the UFC from top to bottom, including a massive headliner with McGregor trying to make history as the first fighter in UFC history to hold two belts at the same time.
This card has a ton of good fights, even on the prelims, but in this post I will be giving my picks for the six main card fights.
As always, I’ll be using BetOnline.ag for the odds for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review.
Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez
I bet against Conor McGregor when he fought Jose Aldo, and I told myself after that 13 second KO that I would never make that mistake again. This is a guy who does what he says he’s going to do. I think he’s as driven as ever and this win will cap off a historic couple of years for Conor. I like him to win this fight and I actually think it’s probably the weakest opponent he could face for the Lightweight Title.
Don’t get me wrong, Alvarez is a strong fighter, but after two extremely close split decision wins over Melendez and Pettis, I don’t think anyone thought he deserved a title shot against RDA over guys like Ferguson or Nurmagomedov. Let’s not forget Cerrone picked him apart with leg kicks in his first fight in the UFC, so before KO’ing RDA he had just two split decision wins and a unanimous decision loss. Not exactly a sparkling resume. That said, he did work against RDA and got the job done to make the most of his chance.
The thing that worries me most about picking McGregor here is Eddie’s durability. We saw how it was very difficult for Conor against a guy who can take such punishment in his fight with Diaz. That said, I think Conor’s power will work better at 155 pounds than it did at 170. I also just feel like history will be made. Even if Conor has to use a similar game plan that he did in the Diaz rematch, I do think he will get the job done.
Play: McGregor -159
Stephen Thompson vs Tyron Woodley
Woodley is another guy who was gifted a title shot and then made the most of it with a knockout win. Now he fights the guy who actually deserved the shot and I’m hoping Wonderboy is able to get the job done and take what should be his. Woodley has the same punchers chance against Wonderboy as he did against Robbie Lawler, but the difference is that Wonderboy controls distance much better than Lawler and Woodley will have to make up significant ground to land that big punch. If he doesn’t land it in the first round, which I don’t forsee, I think it becomes progressively more difficult for Woodley to get the finish. I expect Wonderboy to get the better of the striking exchanges, while avoiding a takedown. I see a finish, but wouldn’t be surprised if Wonderboy is content to pick Woodley apart for 5 rounds like he did against Rory.
Play: Thompson -193
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
This is a fight between a couple Polish ladies that know how to throw large amounts of leather. Each of these fighters should have no problem going hard for a full five rounds. They have some of the highest output of significant strikes in the entire UFC, with Joanna landing 6.36 strikes per minute, while Karolina lands 5.98. The difference here is that Joanna is the superior striker. She punches faster, has better combinations and throws from more varying angles than Karolina. She should get the better of Karolina in each round, but I don’t really see a finish and I think both ladies will be beat up at the end of this one.
Play: Jedrzejczyk -385
Chris Weidman vs Yoel Romero
To me, Weidman is an overrated fighter who made the most of one opportunity and then had a lot handed to him. His first win over Anderson Silva was impressive simply because nobody had been able to catch Silva like that before. Even his second win over Silva he was dominating before Silva broke his leg. Those fights I give him props for, but then the UFC gifted him Machida and Belfort, two more ageing Brazilians who were massive underdogs. He got the job done, so good for him, but then he was thoroughly outclassed by Luke Rockhold when he finally had to face a fighter also in their prime.
Yoel is easy to hate in the UFC, but his recent record speaks for itself. He’s 7-0 in his UFC career, beating everyone the UFC has put in front of him over the past 3 years including high end fighters such as Derek Brunson, Tim Kennedy (controversial), Lyoto Machida and most recently a split decision over Jacare Souza. The way he’s KO’ing people in the UFC you might forget that he’s a silver medalist in wrestling at the Olympics, which is actually better than Weidman’s wrestling credentials of NCAA Division 1 third place finish. On the feet he definitely has the more powerful striking as well. The only issue is his gas tank, but when he gets tired that seems to be when he gets his knockouts. His last 4 finishes have all come in the third round, so the theory that he gasses out should be thrown out the window.
Romero is legitimate and I’m not sure Weidman truly is.
Play: Romero +144
Kelvin Gastelum vs Donald Cerrone
Cerrone is a very tough match up for Kelvin Gastelum. Cerrone has won 11 of his last 12 fights and for some reason still doesn’t get the respect he deserves. He’s had 1 bad fight in his past 12 and Dana still calls him inconsistent, which is just ridiculous. He’s the most consistent fighter in the UFC and his height and striking from range will give Gastelum fits.
Cerrone’s length, leg kicks and willingness to exchange will be more than Gastelum can handle in this one.
Play: Cerrone -153
Miesha Tate vs Raquel Pennington
This is a fight between a couple tough fighters who use grit to win their fights. I give the edge to Tate here simply based on her experience against top end fighters. Let’s not forget that the loss to Amanda Nunes was Tate’s first loss after a 5 fight winning streak that included 4 of the divisions best fighters. Pennington has really found her place in the division after 3 impressive wins, but I don’t think she has the weapons to take out Tate and I give Miesha the advantage if this fight gets to a decision.
Play: Tate -182
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