The UFC 201 PPV seems kind of like the calm between two storms. UFC 200 was supposed to be a monumental event, and although it was still an overall success the word is that it didn’t surpass UFC 100 or even the two Conor McGregor events of UFC 196 and UFC 194. With that in mind, I’m expecting UFC 202 to outdo UFC 200 in terms of buys. But all of that aside, right in front of us we have a somewhat underwhelming UFC 201 card.
The main event is the Welterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Tyron Woodley. I like Lawler as a warrior, but the fact MMADecisions.com has him losing both his Hendricks and most recent Condit fights (which were ultimately Lawler split decision wins) I have to think it’s only a matter of time before he gives up the Welterweight belt. Lucky for Lawler though, is that somehow Woodley sitting out for 18 months and declaring the UFC needed to act as if he won his booked fight with Johny Hendricks (who had health issues related to making weight and couldn’t make that fight) was given a very much undeserved title shot.
So the main event doesn’t get me too jacked up, and the rest of the card leaves a lot to be desired for a PPV event. I am interested in the Namajunas vs Kowalkiewicz co-main and also the Ian McCall vs Justin Scoggins fight to kick off the PPV portion, but other than that the card really doesn’t have a lot to offer.
That said, let’s get into my bets. I’ll be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s a full BetOnline review if you’re interested in learning more.
Robbie Lawler vs Tyron Woodley
Like I said in the intro, I don’t think Lawler is really a deserving champion. In both his Hendricks and Condit split decision wins, the vast majority of MMA outlets had the decision going the other way. Add in the Rory MacDonald fight where he was down 3-1 on the judges scorecards heading into the 5th before getting the TKO and you have to say he is lucky to still be the champ. That said, Lawler is an absolute warrior and the fact that he brings it in the 5th round in each of these fights is likely the reason he wins. The 4th and 5th are the championship rounds and that’s when Lawler takes it to another level.
Woodley, who I don’t think is a deserving title contender to begin with, only has one fight that’s gone past 3 rounds. It was a KO loss to Nate Marquardt in Strikeforce 4 years back and you can tell that Woodley fatigued drastically. If this fight goes late Lawler will definitely get the better of Woodley.
The only chance I see Woodley winning this fight is by finishing Lawler early and considering Lawler hasn’t been KO’d in 12 years and Woodley hasn’t submitted an opponent since his 5th pro MMA fight and I don’t see a very clear path to victory for Woodley.
Once again, the championship odds will be Robbie Lawler’s calling card. He’s simply going to want it more late and have more in the tank than Woodley. I see a late TKO for Lawler in this one.
Play: Lawler -210
Rose Namajunas vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
The other polish strawweight with a very difficult name to pronounce, I’ll refer to her as Karolina from here on out. Karolina has looked great in her two UFC fights, but you could tell Randa Markos wasn’t on her game in that fight this past December. And Heather Jo Clark is simply not a strong fighter. Both wins were impressive, but I’m still unsure what we have in this Polish prospect.
The simple fact that Karolina will likely look to strike with Rose leans me to believe Rose should have a big advantage. Rose is susceptible to little wrestlers, which we saw in her loss to Carla Esparza. When she can stand at range I like her chances, even against a former Muay Thai fighter. Rose will have the advantage on the ground as well and we could see her take the fight to the ground and look for one of her interesting submissions.
I just don’t see Karolina finishing Rose, while I think there’s a few ways Rose can win this fight.
Play: Namajunas -245
Jake Ellenberger vs Matt Brown
Any fight featuring Jake Ellenberger really doesn’t interest me anymore. The UFC continues to book him against strong opponents and I just don’t think he’s at that level anymore. Ellenberger has now lost 5 of his last 6 fights, with his only win in that span coming over Josh Koscheck, who is also over the hill. To be fair the losses were all to top 15 Welterweights (including #1-3 at this time). That said, he gets in there once again with another top 10 opponent in Matt Brown.
Brown is another fighter who has had trouble getting wins of late, going 1-3 in his last four, but the losses have been to the cream of the crop in the division as well. The difference between these two is that Brown is an actually dangerous fighter, while Ellenberger is over the hill.
After Brown finishes Ellenberger early in this fight I hope we are done wasting talented fighters against Jake Ellenberger in the future.
Play: Brown -285
Ian McCall vs Justin Scoggins
Now here’s a fight I can get behind. Justin Scoggins is a guy that I’m really watching in the flyweight division. His win over other top prospect Ray Borg really impressed me. I think this guy, who is still only 24, has turned a corner in his development and is about to become a legitimate contender at flyweight.
Ian McCall is the perfect fight for Scoggins to shoot himself up the rankings, but McCall has shown time and again he still has some in the tank. McCall hasn’t fought in 18 months, but I expect a very game McCall to come out here.
I just think Scoggins will be the more athletic fighter with a wider range of attacks. I can see him taking it to McCall for the 3 rounds and getting the decision.
Play: Scoggins -225
Other Picks
- Michael Graves -200
- Ross Pearson +180
Robbie Lawler • UFC 201 betting • UFC 201 picks • UFC 201 predictions