UFC 200 is still 11 days away, but I’m so excited about this card that I’ve already done thorough research and feel confident giving my picks for the big fights. I was absolutely shocked by the Michael Bisping win at UFC 199 and I’ll definitely have my eyes open for more possible underdog picks on the coming cards, including UFC 200.
I’m going to get right into it because there are lot of big fights I want to touch on. All of the odds are from BetOnline.ag, which is our top rated sportsbook for betting on the UFC online. Here’s a full review.
Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
Let’s get right into it with the main event. In the last fight between these two Jones looked very good, dominating Cormier late in the fight after likely outpointing him through the first few rounds as well. Cormier looked like the weaker man, which is a very tough spot for a guy who used to mostly fight at heavyweight and likes to overpower other light heavyweights in the grappling battles.
Unfortunately for Cormier I think this fight will go in a similar way. Jones just knows how to outpoint his opponents and even though he doesn’t win in a flashy manner, he’s able to usually find distance and even if Cormier does get in close, I’m not convinced that Cormier will have his way with Jones in the grappling exchanges. Jones is basically undefeated (if you don’t count his DQ) and I don’t expect he will suffer his first real loss at UFC 200. It will be a tough loss to swallow for Cormier, but I think these guys expect Jones to once again be the champ.
Play: Jones -295
Brock Lesnar vs Mark Hunt
People seem to think that if Lesnar can get Hunt to the ground he will have his way with him. I think that’s a bit of a simplistic way to look at this fight because Hunt has shown the ability to use the fence and get back to his feet on several occasions, on top of being extremely difficult to get put on his back. I expect Hunt to land a bomb that puts Lesnar’s lights out. Whether he has to survive after a take down, I think he will get back to his feet regardless and send Brock back to the fake fighting of the WWE.
Play: Hunt -160
Amanda Nunes vs Miesha Tate
Tate had a nice win over Holly Holm, but she needed a 5th round submission to get that win. I see Miesha as an above average women’s fighter who often out toughs her opponents and finds a way to win. I don’t see her as being the more talented fighter in this fight with Nunes.
Nunes has the ability to finish fights. In fact, she’s actually a much better finisher than Holly Holm and if she can take the fight to Tate early, she definitely has the ability to finish the champion. I think this was a very dangerous match up for the UFC to make because I think there’s a great chance that Nunes will become the champion and then they don’t really have any huge money fights in the women’s bantamweight division.
Play: Nunes +220
Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo
I’m one of the people who actually thinks that McGregor may not be making the cut back down to featherweight, which could mean that this is the actual title fight in the division. Aldo did beat Edgar back in early 2013 by decision, but it does seem to me like Aldo has regressed a bit since then, while Edgar has gone on a 5 fight winning streak over some of the divisions biggest names.
I think Edgar has turned a corner in his career and I expect him to take this fight to Aldo. We already saw the decline of Renan Barao, who is another fighter in the same camp as Aldo, and I think we may be witnessing the decline of Aldo as well after Edgar beats him at UFC 200.
Play: Edgar -115
Cain Velasquez vs Travis Browne
If Cain is able to get through the next 10 days and makes it to this fight healthy he should have no trouble beating Travis Browne. I would expect a first round TKO in this fight.
Play: Velasquez -300
Kelvin Gastelum vs Johny Hendricks
It’s crazy to think of how much Hendricks stock has dropped in the past year, and it likely shouldn’t have. In my opinion he beat Lawler in their rematch for the Welterweight title, so Hendricks could just as easily still be the champion right now if the judges got that one right. He did have his weight cutting issue when he was supposed to fight Woodley and then he was most recently TKO’d by Stephen Thompson. He had a very bad game plan in that Thompson fight and I personally think that Thompson would be the betting favourite against anyone else in the division at this point in his career, so I’m not looking into that too much.
Gastelum is a great fighter, and will be a tough challenge, but Hendricks still has to be considered among the elite until he loses to someone in the second tier, which is where I have Gastelum slotted.
Play: Hendricks -170
Raphael Assuncao vs TJ Dillashaw
Dillashaw is a great, exciting fighter, but to be honest his results have not been that great. He did win 3 championship fights in the bantamweight division, but two were against Renan Barao (and we’ve seen how much trouble he’s had getting wins of late) and one was against Joe Soto who was knocked out in the first round of his two fights after taking Dillashaw to the 5th round.
All I’m saying is Dillashaw really hasn’t beaten anyone near the top of the bantamweight division at this time. He has losses to John Dodson and Dominick Cruz, and also lost to Raphael Assuncao via split decision in their fight back in 2013.
I’m just not sold on Dillashaw yet, regardless of how good he’s looked against Barao in those two fights. That’s against one fighter. I’m taking Assuncao in this one simply because I still have questiosn about TJ against elite fighters.
Play: Assuncao +320
There are my 7 picks for UFC 200, which is sure not to disappoint. I might add some more picks closer to the event or add some prop betting picks, so check back.
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