We’re kicking off 2016 with a bang, thanks to a new UFC PPV event. UFC 195 won’t carry the same fanfare of UFC 194, when we saw McGregor knockout Jose Aldo, but I’m excited about the Robbie Lawler vs Carlos Condit welterweight title fight, as well as a few other fights on this card. We all know that Lawler comes to fight every time he enters the octagon, and Condit has some of the most dangerous weapons in the division, so this could be a fire fight.
I’ll be using BetOnline.ag for the odds of each of the fights below. Check out our BetOnline review for more info.
DraftKings.com is also running a huge $150,000 guaranteed prize pool contest for this card with just a $5 entry.
Click here to enter a DraftKings.com UFC lineup….
Carlos Condit vs Robbie Lawler
I’m shocked that the oddsmakers have this fight as a pick’em, with both fighters being given a 50% chance to win. That said, Robbie Lawler is no stranger to being underestimated. It’s hard to measure a fighters will when analysing their chance to win, and that’s precisely how Robbie Lawler wins his fights. He’s the toughest guy in the UFC and in a five round war he will bring the fight the entire time.
Condit was given this title fight after beating Thiago Alves, an unranked welterweight after coming back from an over a year layoff due to injury. I just don’t think he deserves this title shot whatsoever, and that might be clouding my judgement, but I don’t give Condit much of a chance in this fight. Yes, he has great technical ability and some devastating weapons, but I just don’t see him finishing Lawler. And if Condit doesn’t finish this fight, I don’t expect his body to hold up for it’s entirety, so I’m expecting a Lawler finish late in the fight, but even if it goes to the judges, Lawler should get the decision.
Play: Lawler 1.91 @ BetOnline.ag
Andrei Arlovski vs Stipe Miocic
Arlovski is on an absolute tear in the heavyweight division and is actually ranked #2, compared to Miocic at #3. He destroyed Frank Mir, who was on his own streak, over 3 rounds in September and before that he finished Travis Browne and Antonio Silva in the first round. These are all high end heavyweight fighters, so these wins cannot be overlooked.
I look at Stipe’s wins and they aren’t nearly as impressive. It took him 5 rounds to beat Mark Hunt, who is significantly overrated in my opinion, and before that he lost to JDS, who just took a loss to Alistair Overeem. Before that he beat Maldonado, who has since been cut from the UFC, Gabriel Gonzaga and Roy Nelson. He’s beaten power punchers who just aren’t very athletic. Arlovski is much more athletic than a Roy Nelson or a Mark Hunt and because of this he’s a much more dangerous opponent. Based on these odds I gotta take Arlovski to keep his comeback streak alive.
Play: Arlovski 2.90 @ BetOnline.ag
Lorenz Larkin vs Albert Tumenov
I see Albert Tumenov as the real deal. He’s a 24 year old fighter out of Russia who has finished 3 of his 4 wins in the UFC in the first round. Larkin is a step up in competition for the Russian, but I still have to give the edge to the Russian in a fight that very likely will not go to the judges. These guys are going to throw bombs and they each have the power to finish the fight. I like Tumenov to land that first big shot first.
Play: Tumenov 1.42 @ BetOnline.ag
Dustin Poirier vs Joseph Duffy
This fight is yet another example of the UFC trying to get people to buy UFC Fight Pass. Poirier vs Duffy is arguably the second or third biggest fight on this entire card, but it’s very early in the night headlining the prelims. That said it’s a very interesting fight because Joe Duffy has a huge hype following him as he’s the last fighter to beat Conor McGregor, and since returning to fighting in 2014 after 3 years away from the sport Duffy has put together 4 big wins with finishes in each fight.
Poirier is a huge step up for Duffy and he’s on a very good streak of his own. Poirier has come back from his loss to McGregor by knocking out his next two opponents, both in the first round. Poirier is the real deal, but I think he will stick around that 5th-10th ranked range in the UFC for his entire career and this will be another loss that will keep him there.
Duffy was a submission expert in his first stint in MMA, which is when he finished Conor McGregor in 2010. After his first loss in MMA he realized his striking was a weakness, so he decided to dabble in boxing to improve his striking. In 2013 Duffy had 7 professional boxing fights in Europe, winning every single one, before making the transition back to MMA. This guy is solid everywhere. I don’t see any weaknesses in his game and I think we could legitimately have another Irish champion very soon.
Play: Duffy 1.55 @ BetOnline.ag