UFC 194 is the card I’ve been waiting for since Conor McGregor beat Chad Mendes for the interim belt at UFC 189. Not only do we get to see Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo in the biggest fight the Featherweight Division we have ever seen, but we finally get to see a real challenger to Chris Weidman at Middleweight in the form of Luke Rockhold. Needless to say I’m excited.
The other three fights on the main card are also big fights with real implications in their various weight classes. Jacare Souza vs Yoel Romero will bring forth the number one contender at Middleweight, while the Gunnar Nelson vs Demian Maia fight is a very interesting fight between a couple of jiu-jitsu experts. The opening fight on the main card features Max Holloway who has won 7 fights in a row since losing to Conor McGregor and who I think is a real threat for the title at Featherweight.
I also gave out my UFC 194 DraftKings targets at SportsBettingCanadian.ca.
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Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo
I’m a Conor McGregor fan and I believe he has a legitimate shot to win this title and “fulfill his destiny”. That said I just don’t think the odds match up with his chances to beat Aldo. McGregor is the favourite heading into this fight and I just think that’s a little bit crazy. He was out wrestled by Chad Mendes for two rounds at UFC 189 before Mendes gassed at the end of round 2 and let down his guard, which ended in him TKO’d on the canvas.
I think the current odds may have been appropriate for UFC 189 where Aldo seemed legitimately drained from all of the media surrounding the world tour and Conor’s trash talking antics. This seems to have settled down a bit and Aldo has been able to clear his head and refocus on this fight. I’m not saying he faked the injury for UFC 189, but I definitely think it has helped him, and I think it will result in Aldo winning this Saturday.
**The odds for this fight have already changed significantly with it becoming close to a pick’em after Conor was originally a fairly big favourite.
Play: Jose Aldo 2.01 @ BetOnline.ag
Luke Rockhold vs Chris Weidman
This is a very interesting fight that I think could really go either way as well. Rockhold is the first legitimate contender that Weidman has fought since Anderson Silva. With Silva needing the immediate rematch the UFC really got backed up at the Middleweight Division and it resulted in a couple old Brazilians getting title shots (Machida and Belfort) that they may have only deserved a few years earlier. Anyways, we now get to see what Weidman is really made of against a high quality fighter who can beat you anywhere in Luke Rockhold.
I personally am a believer in Weidman even with his weak opponent history. He’s done everything asked of him and dominated his fights. I think the odds are spot on for this fight, but I’m leaning towards Weidman.
Play: Weidman 1.74 @ BetOnline.ag
Yoel Romero vs Jacare Souza
I’ve still not gotten over the fact Yoel Romero was so obviously knocked out by Tim Kennedy and took an extra minute on the stool between rounds 2 and 3 in that fight. If the ref had of done the right thing and called the TKO this fight wouldn’t even have materialized. That said, Romero showed against Machida that he is the real deal. He’s a world class wrestler and can finish from any strike.
Even with all those weapons I prefer Jacare in this fight. I think his experience will serve him well in this spot as he should be able to steer clear of the power of Romero and take the fight where he wants it. I think we could see a submission victory out of Souza.
Play: Jacare 1.67 @ BetOnline.ag
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson
Just yesterday Gunnar’s odds to win this fight were 2.25. They’re now down to 2.00 and for good reason. This is a fight between two jiu-jitsu masters and I think that will cancel out (I will be surprised if we see a grappling submission unless it comes after strikes). Gunnar looked very good in his last fight against Brandon Thatch and I think he will have continued to improve his striking, which should be the difference in this fight. Unfortunately you don’t get quite as good of a price anymore, but I still think the sharp money is on Gunnar.
Play: Gunnar 2.00 @ BetOnline.ag
Max Holloway vs Jeremy Stephens
Holloway is one of the highest volume strikers in the UFC and I think he will come forward landing a ton of punches on the slower Jeremy Stephens. I actually think this will be the most one-sided fight on the card. I’m all over Max Holloway who I think should get a shot at one of the big names in the division with a win in Vegas this Sunday.
Play: Holloway 1.19 @ BetOnline.ag