I wrote a Conor vs Jose free pick post last week, but shortly after I posted it, Aldo was out with a rib injury and Chad Mendes was stepping in to fight McGregor for the Interim Belt. This match-up switch changes things drastically for Conor, but he doesn’t seem fazed by it, saying that the opponent doesn’t matter to him.
Who it does matter to is the oddsmakers though. When Mendes was confirmed as the opponent, Mendes and McGregor started off even in the odds, but over the past few days Conor has become the clear favourite according to the bookies. I think this is because of his confidence is never wavering and people see that he is ready to back up all of his talk.
So what are the odds now? Let’s take a look.
Conor McGregor vs Chad Mendes Odds
Online sportsbook BetOnline.ag has the following odds to win the fight:
- Conor McGregor -165
- Chad Mendes +145
Most people saw this as a stylistic match-up issue for Conor, but the betting lines disagree. Conor is a decent sized favourite heading into this fight.
My Pick
I was truly on the fence when it came to Conor vs Jose, but now I’m securely in the Conor camp. I agree that this may be a tough stylistic match-up for Conor, but I think that will just allow us to see another aspect of his game.
McGregor trains with Gunnar Nelson, who is one of the better take-down and wrestling/jiu-jitsu fighters at welterweight. That’s one of the better fighters to test yourself against in terms of takedown defense and getting back to your feet. I expect McGregor will get taken down in this fight at some point, but he will find a way to get back up.
I also just don’t think Mendes will be on the same level in the stand-up as Conor. He may be able to take McGregor to the ground or up against the fence and hold him there, but I don’t see Mendes finishing the fight with a submission on the ground. And if he doesn’t finish Conor, they head back to stand-up at the beginning of the next round. All it takes is for McGregor to land one or two clean punches and this fight could be over.
McGregor’s odds may be bloated a little bit, but I for one have bought into the hype. The confidence that the man exudes is hard to compete with. It may help Mendes that he hasn’t had a full fight camp knowing he is going to fight Conor because it’s given the Irishman less time to break him down mentally. That said, I still think Conor is in Chad’s head and I expect him to be able to break him and finish him on Saturday night.
Play: McGregor -165 @ BetOnline.ag
5Dimes.eu has a ton of props for the fight that you may also like to check out. Here are a couple interesting ones with the odds:
- McGregor inside the distance -135
- McGregor by 5 round decision +651
- Mendes inside distance +339
- Mendes by 5 round decision +325
- McGregor wins in round 1 +320
- McGregor wins in round 2 +505
- McGregor wins by TKO/KO -102
- Mendes wins by TKO/KO +585
I like the McGregor wins in round 2 pick at +505. McGregor apparently was willing to bet Dana and Lorenzo $3 Million that he would finish Mendes in round 2. He also called his second round victory over Denis Siver and his first round win over Dustin Poirier. He seems to be a prophet.
I also did a predictions post on the Lawler vs MacDonald Welterweight Title Fight. Click here to check it out.