This UFC 185 card looks very promising, especially when compared to the last couple PPV events the UFC has put on. At UFC 184 I went 1-2, with my inside distance play on Ronda being my only winner. I’m looking to improve on my 6-10 record for the year with this stacked card.
There are 4 fights that I’m most interested in and I’ve listed my plays for each of them below.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 6-10 for -6.52 units.
Rafael dos Anjos vs Anthony Pettis
I’m excited to watch Anthony Pettis fight again within just 3 months of his last UFC title fight against Melendez. It seems like a treat to watch Showtime because he was out for over a year after his previous title win over Benson Henderson. But in his Melendez fight he showed that he hasn’t lost a single step and he is still potentially the most dangerous fighter on the UFC roster. This dos Anjos fight will be tough, but I don’t think Rafael has the skill-set to take over as the champion at Lightweight. He did have his nice knockout win over Benson back in August and followed that up with a decisive victory over Nate Diaz, but that Henderson win and his decision victory over Cerrone (before Donald started to tear through the division) are really his only two big victories.
I think this is more of a tune-up title fight for Pettis. The real test will be against the winner of the Nurmagomedov vs Cerrone fight, and hopefully we will get to watch that one within half a year of this fight.
I like Pettis within the distance.
Play: Pettis inside distance -155 (5Dimes)
Carla Esparza vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
I see this fight being fairly similar to Carla’s first title fight in the UFC against Thug Rose Namajunas. I do think Jedrzejczyk is more dangerous than Rose, but Carla’s wrestling is second to none in women’s MMA. She will come forward and as long as she can avoid a knockout punch by JJ she should be able to control this fight on the ground. I don’t see Carla giving up this belt anytime soon. The other ladies will first have to figure out how to handle her on the ground.
Play: Esparza -158 (BetOnline)
Matt Brown vs Johny Hendricks
I’m glad they didn’t give Hendricks another shot at the title right away. The rightful fights were made and Hendricks will get this fight to try to once again find his killer instinct. Hendricks hasn’t finished a fight since November of 2012 and it has looked like he has tried to outpoint his opponents in most of his last 4 fights. What makes him really dangerous though is that knockout power he possesses from his left hand.
You know Matt Brown is going to be going for the finish and that will make it much easier for Hendricks to let loose and let his hands fly. If he is still scared to stand with Matt then Hendricks is far better on the ground with his wrestling background. So if he does decide to grind out a 3-round decision he should be able to do that as well. But I for one hope that he gets back to vintage Hendricks and gets a knockout. Either way I see a Hendricks win.
Play: Hendricks -333
Alistair Overeem vs Roy Nelson
Overeem has one knockout, against a fighter that hasn’t competed in 21 months (Struve) and all of a sudden he is a big favourite against Roy Nelson. I know Nelson will never compete for the title at heavyweight, but he is a very exciting and fun to watch gatekeeper in the division. Nelson has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, but losses to Mark Hunt, who just had a title shot, Daniel Cormier, who just had a title shot at Light Heavyweight and Stipe Miocic who is now ranked #4 in the division are not bad losses.
The knockout to Mark Hunt was the only time Nelson has been knocked out in his UFC career and I don’t see a repeat of that outcome against Overeem. If Ben Rothwell can knock out Overeem, the patented Nelson overhand right also stands a good chance.
Play: Nelson +180
Alistair Overeem • Anthony Pettis • Carla Esparza • Johny Hendricks • Matt Brown • Rafael dos Anjos • Roy Nelson