It’s been a good few weeks of fights with UFC 170 being followed up by a couple UFC Fight Nights and now UFC 171 is here this coming weekend. I was able to keep my strong picks alive with another couple wins thanks to Gustafsson and Johnson at UFC Fight Night 37 this past Saturday. I’m having a great 2014 with my UFC picks and look to continue at UFC 171.
2014 Record: 14-3 for +11.10 units.
Robbie Lawler vs Johny Hendricks
Johny Hendricks will get the chance to win the Welterweight UFC Title once again this coming Saturday. Many fans feel he beat GSP at UFC 167, but the judges saw it another way and gave the belt back to GSP. With Georges having vacated the title to take some time away from MMA Hendricks will now fight Lawler for the vacant championships. Lawler defeated up and comer Rory MacDonald by split decision at UFC 167 to earn his spot in this fight.
Lawler is getting this opportunity because he is an exciting fighter who knocks guys out. He only won a split decision against Rory, but he was the aggressor in the fight and his previous two fights ended in knockouts over Voelker and Koscheck. These guys are not of the quality of Hendricks and MacDonald was off his game at UFC 167 while still only losing a split decision. Hendricks will simply be too much for Lawler in this fight and I don’t expect it to go the full 5 rounds. Hendricks is the superior fighter in all aspects in my opinion and he could either win the fight with his striking or take the game to the map and use his superior wrestling to dominate Lawler.
Take Hendricks inside distance -159 at 5Dimes.
Carlos Condit vs Tyron Woodley
The UFC is calling this a title eliminator fight so the winner will likely get the nod against the winner of the Lawler vs Hendricks fight. Condit is my pick to win over Woodley who in my opinion hasn’t done much to warrant this fight other than knocking out Koscheck at UFC 167. I guess it’s the timeline that really matters here, but I still think Condit wins this fight rather easily. Condit lost a tight fight with GSP at UFC 154, but did enough damage to warrant a title eliminator fight with Hendricks at UFC 158. He lost that as well via decision, and has gone on to knockout Kampmann since. Condit is the third best fighter in the welterweight division and will get his rematch after he destroys Woodley at UFC 171. I’m surprised Condit isn’t a bigger favourite.
Take Carlos Condit -185 at 5Dimes.
Hector Lombard vs Jake Shields
In my opinion Jake Shields should really be in the fight with Condit for the title eliminator. He did beat Tyron Woodley just two fights ago and also knocked out Koscheck in his most recent fight so you would think he would be the obvious choice. But Shields isn’t as exciting as a fighter winning many fights via decision and the UFC prefers to put more exciting fighters together rather than necessarily the best.
Shields has already stated that he likely won’t stand with Lombard even though he feels he could win that way, because he feels he has a bigger advantage on the mat. Lombard is a big man with devastating power, but he has lost two of his last four fights and hasn’t really had a win over someone of Shields status. I am very surprised that Shields is even the underdog in this fight and I expect him to get yet another win in the UFC. After this win I hope Shields gets the title eliminator fight he will be deserving. He has after all defeated Lawler, Dan Henderson, Martin Kampmann, Tyson Woodley and Demian Maia.
Take Jake Shields +184 at BetOnline.
Carlos Condit • Hector Lombard • Jake Shields • Johny Hendricks • Robbie Lawler • Tyron Woodley