Coming off of a fairly successful week on UFC on Fuel 7, we’re presented with a card that doesn’t show a ton of value. In fact, this event has really turned into more of a circus than a fight card. Headlined by the first ever Women’s fight in the organization, UFC 157 has seen the most contrasting reactions from the MMA and mainstream media since Brock Lesnar’s debut at UFC 81.
MMA is still very much a niche sport, and the divisiveness between the MMA world’s perception of the main event (that it is an uncompetitive, uninteresting showcase) and the mainstream media’s thoughts (that this is a must-see, must-cover event worthy of constant national media attention) certainly puts an emphasis on that gap. I find myself in the former group, and that makes UFC 157 one of the least intriguing cards to me from both a betting and fight perspective.
Not all is grim however for the MMA fans among us, as the co-main event pits the widely regarded 2nd and 3rd best Light Heavyweights in the world against each other in what should be a number 1 contender’s fight. Urijah Faber and Josh Koscheck also make appearances on this card to attempt to boost its appeal to MMA fans.
Before I get to my picks, I just wanted to share an interesting tidbit of information from Fightnomics.com that relates to the main event. After compiling the odds and results for numerous UFC events, it has been shown that the most profitable bets to make in MMA are on heavy, heavy underdogs. When fighters have an implied probability of winning 18% of the time or less (+450 or greater odds), their actual win rate begins to greatly exceed the implied percentage. Conversely, when a fighter’s odds exceed -550 as a favourite (approximately 85% implied probability) those are the least profitable bets over the long term.
So for anyone expecting me to recommend laying money on Ronda Rousey, that’s just not going to happen. Those who watch MMA outside of the UFC saw a perfect example of why steep favourites simply aren’t good plays on Thursday night at Bellator 90. Muhammad Lawal closed as high as -1200 in some books, and then got knocked out in the first round against a +800 underdog, Emanuel Newton. Obviously these upsets don’t happen all the time, nor do they even happen half of the time, but they occur often enough for your money to be better used elsewhere.
Now, moving on to bets that are actually worth your time (but tread cautiously, this card is not great for value and there’s another UFC event next weekend):
Odds
5Dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event: Lyoto Machida wins by Decision -103 Not Machida by Decision -127 Dennis Bermudez wins Inside the Distance +110 Not Bermudez Inside the Distance -150Predictions
These two prop bets prevent a modicum of value, as I see Machida as a likely winner against Henderson, and Bermudez is rightly heavily favoured over Matt Grice. Despite their respective chances in these bouts, I see value because of the way the bouts will be won.
Against Henderson, who has as stout a chin as has ever existed in MMA, Machida should be able to control the distance and win the striking battles clearly, but I don’t see him knocking Dan out. At the same time, as long as he is able to avoid the big right hand of Henderson, he really has no way to lose this fight. Machida has very good takedown defence, better cardio, and superior striking. So we have a fight here in which the likely winner will almost always win by a decision, and we have odds that state he’ll win this fight by decision about 50% of the time.
The other bet I like is for Dennis Bermudez to finish Matt Grice. This bet has more to do with Grice’s fallibility than Bermudez being any sort of great finisher. Grice is 2-4 in the UFC, with all four losses coming by stoppage in the first round. He has been knocked out twice, and submitted twice. Perhaps most applicable to this fight, both submission losses were via guillotine. Bermudez has shown good punching power, so there is a chance that he can knock Grice out, but he has also shown that the guillotine is his most effective submission. Both of his official submission wins have come by guillotine, and he also used it to great effect against Akira Corassani on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’. I think the most likely outcome of this fight is that Bermudez finds a guillotine in a scramble or off of a Grice takedown attempt, but the possibility of the knockout makes me hesitant to take the submission prop.
As I’ve mentioned multiple times already, bettors should tread lightly and if you don’t feel confident, wait. There should be some more enticing spots on next week’s UFC on Fuel 8 card.
Play: Lyoto Machida to win by Decision -103
Play: Dennis Bermudez to win Inside the Distance +110
dennis bermudez • liz carmouche • lyoto machida • ronda rousey • ufc 157