From FX, to Fox, and now Pay-Per-View, the UFC’s build towards their Super Bowl weekend card has been successful and created quite a bit of momentum. Their first card of the year on FX set viewership records on that platform, and last weekend’s Fox card ended up pulling a larger audience than anticipated given a Flyweight headliner that wasn’t really promoted for fear that fans wouldn’t tune in. Those events have built up to one of the best fights we will get a chance to see all year, as Frankie Edgar drops down to Featherweight to take on long time divisional kingpin, Jose Aldo.
The Featherweights don’t have to carry this event on their own either, as Rashad Evans will be second from the top, and Alistair Overeem takes on Antonio Silva in a bout with Heavyweight title implications. The amazing depth of this card doesn’t stop there however; Jon Fitch and Demian Maia will square off in a battle of suddenly interesting top 10 Welterweights. Kicking off the main card will be Joseph Benavidez and Ian McCall, the second and third best Flyweights on the planet, in a race to see who can get another fight with Demetrious Johnson.
This could very well be as stacked a PPV card as the UFC has put on in years. It helps that the card hasn’t been ravaged by injury, but the UFC’s willingness to feature the lighter weight divisions more prominently has also made this possible.
The top 3 fights on this card are relatively simple to break down from a betting perspective. Aldo is rightfully favoured against Edgar and I think he pulls out the victory, but Frankie is the best fighter and most interesting style match up the champion has faced. Plus Edgar has made a career out of being difficult for other fighters to figure out. Sometimes the best play is no play, and in this case I simply cannot bet on this fight at the current odds. Jose Aldo being one of my favourite fighters to watch also makes me want to stay away from betting this fight so that I don’t insert any personal bias into my bets.
The same “stay away” philosophy goes for the Overeem/Silva fight. Yes, Overeem should walk right through ‘Bigfoot’, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Silva landed one of his enormous paws on Alistair, and caused him to flame out in incredible fashion. Conceivably, we could also see Overeem tire as he has been known to do in the past, and then it’s just rolling the dice on another Heavyweight fight. Remember how that turned out for us a few weeks ago with Ben Rothwell?
In stark contrast is the Evans/Nogueira fight. I see no way in which Rogerio wins this fight, and while the odds are very long on Rashad (-455 on Bookmaker.eu right now), he can be added to parlays or can be bet to win by Decision (-164 on 5dimes.eu) against a durable fighter like Nogueira.
The other two fights on the main card are where things get interesting.
Odds
Bookmaker.eu has set the following odds for this event: Jon Fitch -185 Demian Maia +155 5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event: Jon Fitch wins by Decision +106 Not Jon Fitch by Decision -146 Joseph Benavidez -250 Ian McCall +210 Ian McCall wins by Decision +354 Not Ian McCall by Decision -545Predictions
Jon Fitch was incredibly undervalued against Erick Silva, as the ability to get him at even money (or even plus odds if you timed it right) against an unproven prospect was simply silly. This line is a bit more appropriate, but I still feel extremely confident that Fitch will come out the winner. This fight isn’t a question of whether or not Maia can take Fitch to the ground, as Jon has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. It is more a situation where Maia’s cardio at 170 will finally be tested, as Fitch won’t be put away as easily as Rick Story. For as much as Maia’s submission ability gets played up, prior to the Story victory, his last submission win was in February 2009. Fitch is as competent a grappler as any of those who Maia went to decision against, but is noted for getting stronger as fights wear on. So even if Maia is able to take Fitch down and keep him down in the first round (a possibility, but far from a guarantee), I don’t see him being able to repeat that against a grinder of Jon’s quality, in a weight class that he hasn’t truly been pushed in.
As of this writing, Fitch’s line to win via decision (his only method of victory since 2007) is +106 at 5dimes.eu. To me, that is a play that cannot be ignored. Also, I mentioned my complete confidence in Rashad Evans earlier and a Fitch/Evans parlay currently sits just below even money. For those who like to bet conservatively, Jon Fitch is a fighter who consistently fights to his strengths. While he may struggle at times, he has an ability to persevere through bad spots and come out victorious in spite of it. At the end of the night, I see his hand being raised once again to cash tickets for all of the Purdue wrestling fans out there… or at least people who like to make money.
The other line I see value in is Ian McCall sitting as a sizeable underdog against Joseph Benavidez. Both McCall and Benavidez fought competitively with Flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, but both brought very different styles to those fights. McCall was focused on taking Johnson down, while Benavidez preferred to try his hand on the feet. I believe that if McCall comes prepared, and follows the same sort of gameplan that brought him success in the first bout against Johnson that he can win this fight. That first qualifier is a rather large one however; as McCall showed up the week of his rematch against Johnson with 22 pounds to cut in order to make weight. If he has been similarly undisciplined in this camp leading up to this fight, he will lose to Benavidez. But if his preparations have been good, I see this fight as being even and McCall as the bigger fighter could very well be able to take advantage of his strength and wrestling advantages in the clinch. This is especially true when you consider that in Benavidez’s losses, he has been outscored in the takedown department 17-0 (6-0 in each fight against Dominick Cruz, and 5-0 against Johnson). Keep an eye out for the weigh-ins, but if McCall looks good, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet him at a steep underdog price which isn’t befitting of the fight. Keep in mind however that when you’re betting a sizeable underdog you can’t expect them to win every time. So if you’re conservative bettor, perhaps best to stick with the safer plays.
Play: Jon Fitch to win via Decision +106
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Play: Jon Fitch/Rashad Evans Parlay -114
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Play: Ian McCall to defeat Joseph Benavidez +210
or
Play: Ian McCall to win via Decision +354
frankie edgar • ian mccall • jon fitch • jose aldo • rashad evans • ufc 156