UFC on Fuel TV 6 marks a couple milestones for the organization. It is the first time the Octagon has made the trip to China, heading to the country’s Las Vegas equivalent, Macau. As such, we’d be remised if we didn’t talk a little bit about some betting options.
This card also marks the first time that a highly recognizable fighter has headlined a Fuel TV card. Taking on Cung Le — the closest thing the UFC could find to a main card worthy Chinese fighter — Rich Franklin finds himself going from many time PPV main eventer, to being the marquee fight on a network that is averaging less than 200,000 viewers per event. From a promotional perspective, it will be interesting to see what the ratings for this event look like, and if they encourage the UFC to put more marketable fighters on their least exposed product.
As the betting lines for the smaller cards are always slower to be released, we only have the main card fights to examine right now. While there aren’t a plethora of great options at this point, the main event does present a couple interesting opportunities.
Odds
5dimes.eu has set the following odds for the Franklin-Le main event.
Money Line
Rich Franklin -310
Cung Le +255
Prop Bet
Rich Franklin wins Inside the Distance -140
Not Franklin Inside the Distance +100
Franklin opened as a -260 favorite in this fight, and has steadily increased to where he sits now, indicating the public confidence in the former Middleweight champion. I don’t really expect the line to move in the opposite direction as the fight approaches.
Prediction
I favour Rich Franklin heavily in this fight for a multitude of reasons.
First, Franklin is the best fighter that Cung Le has faced in his MMA career. Previously, the biggest test of Le’s career has been Wanderlei Silva, whom he lost to by TKO after tiring in the second round. In the Silva fight, as soon as Wanderlei pressed forward — rather than allowing Cung to maintain the range he prefers — Le looked lost and ineffective. While Franklin is a better striker from range than Silva (exhibited by his two victories over Wanderlei), he would be smart to fight with a similar strategy of closing the distance to avoid Le’s kicks and spinning attacks from the outside.
While Franklin doesn’t have the most durable chin in the world, he is a smart and instinctive fighter when hurt, and has survived being put in bad spots by fighters who are better finishers than Le. This, along with the grappling advantage Franklin will hold, could prevent Le from really pursuing the finish if he does have Franklin hurt. As I see a TKO being Le’s only avenue to victory, this makes me even more confident in a Franklin victory.
The third factor was also the one that determined my bet on this fight. I’ll put this as bluntly as possible. Cung Le does not have good cardio. He has never gone 5 rounds (which this fight is scheduled for), and has only gone 3 full rounds twice in his career. He won both of those fights, which may lead some to believe his cardio isn’t particularly bad, but he was in complete control of both fights, and as any fighter will tell you, they can fight at their regular pace for rounds upon rounds. In his last fight against Patrick Cote, Le was not pressured at all, and as a result he outpointed a less technical striker for 15 minutes. Contrast that with the aforementioned Silva fight, and you see the difference not allowing Le to settle into his rhythm — even if it means eating a couple of shots — makes. Over a 25-minute fight, even if Franklin does fight at a somewhat measured pace, Le will eventually tire and I expect to see a stoppage.
For these reasons, rather than laying the -310 price for Franklin, I feel confident in picking him to finish Cung Le inside the distance.
Play: Rich Franklin wins Inside the Distance @ -140 (5Dimes.eu)
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Written by: Brad Taschuk
bet on Cung Le • bet on Rich Franklin • UFC on Fuel