The UFC Fight Night Boston card lived up to the hype. Conor McGregor looked as good as anyone could possibly expect, completely picking apart Dennis Siver. My bet on him to not finish Siver in the first round barely paid out, but the German survived until the second, albeit barely. I didn’t post this in my picks, but I personally had a significant bet on a second round stoppage at odds of 4.50 so it was nice to hit that.
In the other fight I put money down on though things didn’t play out quite as I had hoped. I had Henderson by decision +140 and to be honest the fight played out almost exactly as I thought it would. Ok, maybe I didn’t see Cowboy being the one to get the takedowns, but I still think that Henderson easily won that fight. That’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes though, so the night ended 1 for 2, with basically break even units.
2014 Record: 54-33 for +17.31 units.
2015 Record: 2-2 for -0.05 units.
Fight Night Sweden is here this week and there are 3 very interesting fights on the card. Of course the title eliminator fight between Gustafsson and Johnson has the most importance with the winner earning a fight with Jon Jones. That said, the Davis vs Bader fight also carries a lot of weight in the Light Heavyweight picture and Mousasi has a chance to earn a shot at a top ranked opponent if he can beat Dan Henderson.
Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Johnson
Johnson has looked very impressive since moving to Light Heavyweight. He completely picked apart Phil Davis at UFC 172 and Davis in my opinion is going to earn himself a title shot very soon. The win over Little Nog was impressive as well, especially considering Nogueira was coming off a win over Rashad Evans. Simply put Anthony Johnson is the real deal.
He has the power to finish the fight at any time, but I still expect Gus to win based on his fighting style.
Gustafsson will be able to use his reach against Johnson. He will also be able to come in and connect with some combos and then once again move to distance. This will prevent Johnson from every being able to plant his feet and start landing his big power shots.
Gustafsson should also have more endurance if this fight does go into the late rounds. I think Gus actually wins this fight fairly easily. But that said, it can be looking easy and then all of a sudden Johnson lands one of his bombs. It’s a dangerous matchup for Gus, but I think he still gets the win.
My Pick: Gustafsson -250
Dan Henderson vs Gegard Mousasi
At least we won’t have to see Henderson be rag dolled at Light Heavyweight by a much larger Dan Cormier. Instead I expect we will see him get picked apart by Mousasi in this one. Henderson has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Yes, two of them were split decision losses to Machida and Evans, two very big names, but the fact remains that Henderson is now 44 years old and he has to be slowing down.
Mousasi lost his last fight to Jacare Souza by submission in the third round and Souza is now really considered the top contender in the Middleweight division. In his 7 fights in Strikeforce/UFC Mousasi has only lost to Machida and Souza. Henderson will still probably be his biggest win, but I can’t see many ways he loses this fight. Henderson does have the big power punches that can finish fighters, but Mousasi has never been knocked out in his 42 fight career and I don’t expect him to start now.
My Pick: Mousasi -350
Phil Davis vs Ryan Bader
This is an interesting fight between two guys who have exceptional wrestling. After seeing Phil Davis completely dominate Glover Teixeira at UFC 179 though I see big things for this man. To me Ryan Bader is a stepping stone who will always be a mid-level guy in the UFC who beats a lot of guys in the UFC, but never makes the jump by beating a top guy. He lost to Glover Teixeira by knockout in the first round of their fight and just see how easily Davis dominated Glover it makes me think he should take this fight.
Bader will beat guys like Ovince St. Preux, Rafael Cavalcante, Rampage Jackson, etc. But he won’t be beating the Jon Jones’, Lyoto Machida’s, Glover Teixeira’s or Phil Davis’s in this division.
My Pick: Phil Davis -245 @ BetOnline.ag
I could see any of these fights going to a decision, so I’m just taking the straight up winners for each of these bets this week.
Alexander Gustafsson • Anthony Johnson • Dan Henderson • Gegard Mousasi • Phil Davis • Ryan Bader