It’s been a couple weeks now since the Brown vs Silva UFC Fight Night in Cincinnati where Brown was able to survive an early barrage by Silva before taking over the fight and really doing a ton of damage before finishing Silva in the third round. That fight was simply amazing and is a contender for fight of the year already. In fact that entire card was full of some good fights and even though UFC 173 is a PPV it will be hard to top the action that took place in Cincinnati. I went 2 for 2 on the night with a couple underdogs in Matt Brown and Costa Phillipou, which just continues to add to my amazing year so far betting on MMA.
2014 Record: 25-7 for +21.05 units.
UFC 173 will not be one of the bigger PPV’s the promotion will have this year. There are some interesting fights, but in the main two fights of the evening there is a huge favourite in each which somewhat takes away from the interest. But let’s get right to it.
Renan Barao vs TJ Dillashaw
Barao is simply a beast. After losing his first fight in MMA he has won his most recent 32 (with one no contest) including 4 Bantamweight Championship fights in the UFC. He destroyed Urijah Faber in his last fight and has really gone through the who’s who of the Bantamweight division in the UFC. If I’m being honest the Bantamweight division is one of the weakest in the UFC, which is why Dillashaw is getting a title shot here. He is coming off a nice win over Mike Easton, but last October he lost a decision to Raphael Assuncao, although it was a split decision in Brazil. Dillashaw does have some of the tools to compete in this fight, but he is over his head here against Barao. I’m just waiting for Dominick Cruz to finally return at Bantamweight and create the interesting title fight that everyone wants. Although it may not be the fight we will expect considering Cruz has already been out for close to 3 years. I like Barao to finish Dillashaw standing up, and I don’t expect this fight to go the full 5 rounds.
Take Renan Barao to win by TKO/KO +125 at 5Dimes.
Daniel Cormier vs Dan Henderson
This will be Cormier’s first real test at light heavyweight after destroying Pat Cummins in his first try at the weight. I think Cormier is a beast and expect him to be challenging Jon Jones for the title very soon. He will likely need a convincing win over Henderson to get into a title eliminator fight before facing Jon Jones. I do expect a decisive victory over Henderson though. Henderson is past his prime and if it wasn’t for landing a right hand at the right time against Shogun in his last fight he would have lost 4 in a row. To be fair two of these losses were split decisions to Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida, two of the best fighters in the world, but I still think Henderson should now be considered a tier below the best in the light heavyweight division. One thing about Henderson though is he can take a lot of damage without going down. He did get KO’d a couple fights ago by Vitor Belfort, but that was the first KO loss of his career. I think he will last the 3 rounds with Cormier, but get beat up severely doing it.
Take Daniel Cormier by 3 round decision -140 at BetOnline.
Robbie Lawler vs Jake Ellenberger
Lawler really took it to Johny Hendricks in his title fight and I for one was impressed with his power and striking ability. I didn’t think much of his win over Rory MacDonald because it just didn’t seem like Rory came to fight that day, but now I really have to give him a lot of respect. Ellenberger on the other hand hasn’t fought in almost a year and really never beat anyone that impressive. He lost to Kampmann via TKO a couple years back and Kampmann has become somewhat of a gatekeeper for the UFC. I can’t give him credit for his win over Nate Marquardt or over Jay Hieron, neither of who are of real relevance in the UFC. I think Ellenberger will be out of his depth in this fight and will be knocked out by Lawler.
Take Robbie Lawler to win by TKO/KO +130 at 5Dimes.
Dan Henderson • Daniel Cormier • Jake Ellenberger • Renan Barao • Robbie Lawler • TJ Dillashaw • UFC 173
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