The UFC makes its way back to Japan on Sunday (Saturday night in North America), with a card that seems certain to provide a ton of action. With a mix of fighters who were stars in Pride – including Wanderlei Silva, perhaps the most synonymous fighter who competed in the organization – and young Asian prospects, this event has something for everyone.
Mark Hunt and Takanori Gomi join Silva as former Pride stalwarts on this card, as they take on Stefan Struve and Diego Sanchez respectively. It still boggles my mind to say this, but the Hunt/Struve fight could produce a Heavyweight Title challenger. That’s right, Mark Hunt – who is two and a half years removed from a six-fight losing streak and an embarrassing submission loss to Sean McCorkle – is on the verge of being considered a legitimate contender in 2013. This fight is a prop bettor’s dream, as Hunt can really only win by KO, and Struve can only win by Submission. Those lines sit at +180 and -120 at 5dimes.eu right now.
The Gomi/Sanchez fight marks Diego’s return to the Lightweight division, where he made an ill-fated challenge for the belt back in December 2009. Gomi has been looking more and more like the fighter who tore through the Pride Lightweight division as of late. Despite his 3-3 record inside the UFC, his losses have come to Nate Diaz, Kenny Florian and Clay Guida, so it’s not as if he is losing to anything other than top 155ers. What makes this fight more interesting is that Sanchez will be coming off of a year-long layoff, and returning to a weight where he didn’t look particularly impressive the first time around. Gomi could be worth some consideration as he currently sits at +245 on 5dimes.eu.
Unlike the last event, where the main event had such a steep price tag attached to it that anyone would have been silly to bet on Ronda Rousey, there is some value in the Silva/Stann match-up. In my eyes, that value belongs to Stann. There are also some other decent spots on the card even aside from the two I’ve already mentioned.
Odds
5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event: Brian Stann -265Wanderlei Silva +225 Brian Stann to win via T/KO -138 Hector Lombard -225
Yushin Okami +185 Hector Lombard to win Inside the Distance -130
Predictions
I see both of these fights ending the same way, although they should play out differently. Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva are going to come out and throw down, no doubt about it. Both guys are aggressive brawling-type strikers who seem focused on putting on a show for the Japanese fans. The problem for Silva in that type of fight lies in the fact that he is older, slower, and has a worse chin than Stann. While MMA math is normally a bad reference point for any fight, Stann and Silva have both fought a common opponent in Chris Leben, and they fought him in a similar manner. Those two fights were brawls that had both fighters landing punches, but there was in important difference. While Stann walked through Leben’s punches and proceeded to get the KO, Silva got knocked out from some short punches in the clinch. If this fight plays out anything like their normal styles would lead you to believe, it’s very hard to see a way that Wanderlei wins. Consider this fact, Silva is 3-7 in his last 10 fights, has been KO’d in four of those losses. Furthermore, in fights that have taken place above Middleweight – as this one will – he’s 1-5 during that span with 3 KO losses. Expect Stann to move that record further in the wrong direction.
I see Yushin Okami putting up a better fight against Hector Lombard, but eventually his fate will be the same as Wanderlei’s. Okami has looked shaky since his title shot against Anderson Silva, as he has been hit hard in the three fights after that long-awaited chance at the belt. While he dominated Tim Boetsch for two rounds, he ended up getting knocked out brutally in the third round. Against unheralded Buddy Roberts he was being outstruck handily in the first round before getting the fight down. Finally, in his last fight against Alan Belcher (where I bet him), he was still getting hit hard despite spending most of the contest in close quarters. Okami’s strength is when he can get into the clinch and muscle fighters to the ground. This is where, despite Lombard’s limited success against top competition, this becomes a bad fight for Okami. Lombard has an Olympic Judo base, and some of the best takedown defence in all of MMA. It probably doesn’t hurt that he’s built like a fire hydrant as well, with a low base which makes it almost impossible for opponents to get under his hips. In addition, he possesses some of the most vicious KO power in the Middleweight division. That combination makes me think this is going to be a bad night for Okami. Lombard will be able to keep the fight on the feet, and will land one of his big punches as Okami tries to close the distance. Once that happens, all it will take is a couple follow up shots on the ground for the ref to step in. There is slight potential for Okami to grind Lombard out in the clinch without getting the takedowns or for Okami to be so tentative that this fight goes to decision, but there is some risk in every bet that you place. Given the price for Lombard’s inside the distance line, it’s a worthwhile risk in this case.
Play: Brian Stann to win via T/KO -138
Play: Hector Lombard to win Inside the Distance -130
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