After the run of events in January, the week break between UFC 156 and UFC on Fuel 7 has seemed like an eternity. In what seems to be the development of an international series of events on Fuel TV, the Octagon heads back to London, England. In doing so, the organization continues both the string of quality cards, and the trend of lighter weight classes being more of a focus at the top of cards.
The main event features what is technically termed an Interim Bantamweight Title bout – but given the uncertainty surrounding Dominick Cruz’s return from multiple knee surgeries, might as well be for the true Bantamweight Title. Renan Barao puts his 29-fight winning streak on the line against a man in Michael McDonald who, with a victory, is poised to become the youngest champion in UFC history by over a year and a half.
The co-main event on the card pits two top 10 Featherweights against each other, as Dustin Poirier’s all-around game and Cub Swanson’s newly bionic hands look to carry each man to a title shot in the increasingly crowded 145lb division.
After that, the card takes on a decidedly British feel, as eight fighters will be representing the Union Jack. As is customary on cards featuring fighters with less exposure, there are some solid betting opportunities, which is a welcome sight coming off of UFC 156, which was almost universally disastrous for bettors. I’ve highlighted 3 bouts featuring British fighters which are worthy of further examination.
Odds
BetOnline.ag has set the following odds for this event: Danny Castillo -110 Paul Sass -110 5dimes.eu has set the following odds for this event: Cyrille Diabate +190 Jimi Manuwa -240 Bookmaker.eu has set the following odds for this event: Stanislav Nedkov -110 Tom Watson -120Predictions
These are fights where I will make different sized plays based on my confidence in the bet. Bet size is always something that should be considered, as you shouldn’t automatically be making the same sized play each time out.
In the Danny Castillo–Paul Sass fight, we’ve got two fighters coming off of losses who are considered to be evenly matched, as BetOnline has the fight listed as a pick ‘em. While I believe Sass has the single best skill in this fight, his submission game, I feel as though the oddsmakers are overvaluing him on that skill alone. His problem in this fight is that he has no way to use his submission game, as long as Castillo comes into the fight with a sound gameplan. Simply put, Paul Sass is not a good wrestler.
In his UFC career he has gotten by in spite of his wrestling due to foolish opponents (Jacob Volkmann and Michael Johnson) and overmatched opponents (Mark Holst). However, Castillo is both skilled enough and smart enough to avoid engaging Sass on the ground. This means that Sass will be forced to strike with a much better striker, and despite “reports” from his camp that he is a good striker with good power, what I’ve seen from him on tape tells a different story. Castillo has matured beyond a wrestler who has to take bouts to the ground in order to win, and he’ll show those skills off here as he batters Sass for either 15 minutes, or as long as it takes to garner the stoppage. I’ll be playing 2 units on Castillo in this fight.
Another interesting bout to me features the extremely hyped, undefeated Jimi Manuwa, against veteran Cyrille Diabate. This fight addresses a topic that I come across quite often in MMA. Manuwa is already 32 years old, and in my mind it is difficult to be considered a top prospect at that age. Don’t get me wrong, Manuwa is a skilled and entertaining striker, but I believe his undefeated record has garnered him more hype than his actual performances. His lone UFC fight was against a man who has become something of a 205lb punching bag, Kyle Kingsbury. Despite what people will have you believe, he wasn’t particularly impressive. Sure, after being taken down early by Kingsbury (who isn’t a particularly good wrestler) Manuwa dominated the first round, causing some serious swelling in his opponents’ left eye. The second round saw Manuwa slow down drastically. He was still able to land some shots early, but Kingsbury took him down late in the round and was able to pass guard with no resistance from Manuwa. Had the fight not been stopped due to Kingsbury’s eye, I truly believe that Manuwa was on his way to either getting submitted or pounded out in the third round, or at the very least a very close decision.
This isn’t to say that Diabate is a lock in this fight or anything. Manuwa still has the speed and power early to notch another knockout, and Diabate doesn’t have the most stout defence in the world. Still, not only is he the best fighter Manuwa has ever faced, but he is the best striker by miles. He is very technical and seasoned on the feet, and his losses have come to fighters who have been able to take him down and submit him, or take him down repeatedly to win a decision, neither of which are Manuwa’s forte. Even when Diabate faced the hyper aggressive Shogun back in 2006, he quickly forced Rua to take the fight to the ground and defended well before a flurry of stomps and kicks forced him to tap to strikes (even though the fight was erroneously scored the only TKO loss of Diabate’s career). If you believe that Manuwa’s striking skills are so transcendent that you’re willing to lay -240 on him being able to do what nobody before has been able to, by all means do so. I tend to think that Diabate, who sports a 6 inch reach advantage, will use his longer limbs and crisper technique to keep his opponent at bay early. Manuwa, who throws primarily looping power shots, will have difficulty closing the distance early and will tire as the fight goes on, even opening up the possibility for Diabate to take the fight to the ground later on as Kingsbury was able to do.
We haven’t seen Manuwa tested to know how he’ll react to getting hit with clean, hard shots, or have to defend against submission attempts when tired, so I’m not ready to predict a decision or stoppage specifically, but I do think there is enough value in Diabate at his current odds to warrant a bet. Mine will be my standard 1 unit.
Finally (and for the sake of brevity), we have a very easy fight to break down. Stanislav Nedkov is dropping from 205lbs down to 185 to face one of Britain’s favourite fighters, Tom Watson. Nedkov has a wrestling background which he normally eschews in favour of throwing wild looping power punches. He also tires extremely quickly in fights whether he chooses to grapple or strike. Against Luis Cane, he was getting tagged repeatedly early in the fight before realizing that Cane loves getting hit in the face with left hands and connected on one of his swings. Against Thiago Silva, he was losing each striking exchange through the first 10 minutes of the fight, so chose to push Silva against the cage. Apparently the exertion from pushing an opponent up against who wasn’t really resisting was too taxing on his cardio, as he was a zombie by the third round.
Against a fighter like Tom Watson who has good striking defence to go with his improving takedown defence and scrambling ability, I just don’t see Nedkov winning. He’s at a striking disadvantage in every regard except for power and doesn’t utilize his grappling – likely due to his cardio issues. There’s a small chance that he connects with something early and drops Watson, but outside of that happening I see ‘Kong’ controlling the final 10 minutes of this bout to take a decision, or finishing Nedkov late. This is another fight that to me warrants a larger than normal play.
Play: Danny Castillo to defeat Paul Sass @ -110
Play: Cyrille Diabate to defeat Jimi Manuwa @ +210
Play: Tom Watson to defeat Stanislav Nedkov @ -120
Cyrille Diabate • danny castillo • jimi manuwa • paul sass • stanislav nedkov • tom watson • ufc on fuel 7
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