After a mediocre UFC 209 card that saw a very uneventful main event (I thought Wonderboy won 3-2) the UFC is back at it this week heading to Brazil for a Fight Night event in Fortaleza. Vitor Belfort will headline the card against Kelvin Gastelum and you have to wonder how many more headliners Belfort has in him at this point, especially if he doesn’t get the win on Saturday.
Some other big fights on the card include Shogun Rua vs Gian Villante, Edson Barboza vs Beneil Dariush, Jussier Formiga vs Ray Borg and Alex Oliveira vs Tim Means. This is actually a very solid Fight Night main card with a lot of fights that should be very eventful and fights that actually matter in the UFC landscape, which isn’t always the case in this new version of the UFC.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Vitor Belfort vs Kelvin Gastelum
Gastelum is a big favorite in this fight and rightfully so after his extremely impressive middleweight debut TKO over Tim Kennedy. Gastelum looked extremely fast and fluid on the feet and what he lost in size by moving up to middleweight he more than made up for in quickness.
Belfort is far past his prime, but he does still have a couple initial flurries in him where he will attempt to end the fight. He used these initial flurries to finish Henderson in their rematch a couple years ago. That said, Belfort post his TRT exemption is less explosive and gasses far quicker than the Belfort who was given a title shot against Weidman in mid-2015. He was absolutely destroyed by both Souza and Mousasi in his recent couple fights and I don’t expect his initial attacks to work against Gastelum who has some very solid footwork and also has a solid chin on him if he does get caught.
Gastelum should then start to easily pick Belfort apart on the feet and get an easy win either late in round 1 or more likely in round 2.
Play: Gastelum -365
Mauricio Rua vs Gian Villante
Even though Shogun isn’t as dominant as he used to be this is still a big step up in competition for Gian Villante. Shogun actually does have a couple wins in his last two UFC appearances and I think he could get the better of Villante on the feet as long as he avoids the big bomb that Gian is capable of ending fights with.
Overall, I have to give a slight edge to Rua in this fight due to his overall experience and fight IQ, but Villante definitely has a punchers chance.
Play: Rua -155
Beneil Dariush vs Edson Barboza
Don’t sleep on Dariush in this fight. Yes, Barboza has the flashy striking and some of the best kicks you will see in the UFC, but Dariush is a very well rounded fighter who can land some big shots of his own. Barboza’s last couple wins have come over big name opponents, but I believe Pettis and Melendez are both overrated as well as perfect opponents for Barboza. Dariush brings a well rounded game to this fight and I think this will be a battle on the feet, with Dariush also having the ability to take the fight to mat if he needs to.
Dariush looked extremely impressive against James Vick a couple fights back and was also able to put an end to Rashid Magomedov’s 4-0 start to the UFC with a decision victory in his last outing.
I think Dariush has more ways to win this fight than Barboza and has actually faced stiffer competition in last couple outings although they haven’t had the big names that Barboza was able to defeat. Advantage Dariush in my eyes.
Play: Dariush +144
Jussier Formiga vs Ray Borg
I’m a big believer in Ray Borg as a prospect at 125 pounds. He absolutely crushed Louis Smolka in his last fight and will now get to test himself against the #3 ranked Jussier Formiga in a bid to move up the division rankings.
The good thing about this matchup for Borg is he doesn’t really have to worry about Formiga’s hands on the feet, which was an issue for him when he fought Justin Scoggins. Borg should have the wrestling advantage and as long as he can avoid submissions once on the mat I think he should be able to grind out a win over Formiga and really cement himself as a contender at 125 pounds.
Play: Borg +105
Alex Oliveira vs Tim Means
These two are running it back after that very controversial No Contest at UFC 207. Means knocked out Oliveira with knees while Oliveira had one knee down against the fence and there was a ton of confusion about whether or not the strikes were illegal, which seemed to be why the fight ended in a no contest.
Before that took place though the fight was very back and forth with both guys landing some big shots. Means was probably up by a slight margin on the scorecards, but I’m very surprised by how big a favorite Means is heading into this rematch fight. Oliveira was a -135 favorite heading into their first fight and now he is a +185 dog heading into this one.
Means did show that he can wrestle with Oliveira, which was a question mark going into fight #1, which is likely the reason for the swap in favorite considering that Means always had the finishing ability if he was able to avoid Oliveira controlling the fight.
That said, I still have to with Cowboy at these odds. I really think the fight could still go either way so at these odds I’ll take the value play.
Play: Oliveira +185
Other Plays
- Kevin Lee -120
- Paulo Henrique Costa -240
Kelvin Gastelum • MMA betting • ufc betting • ufc picks • vitor belfort