UFC 207 is still almost two weeks away, but the UFC did the right thing in giving us two weeks of build up for this very solid card the features Ronda Rousey’s return. Rousey will battle Amanda Nunes, who is the latest holder of the women’s bantamweight belt after it went from Rousey to Holm, then from Holm to Tate and finally from Tate to Nunes. This is a very big fight that will get the majority of media attention leading up to December 30th, but let’s not forget that there are some other very solid fights on this card.
Dominick Cruz is also back to defend his bantamweight belt against Cody Garbrandt, and in the same division top contender TJ Dillashaw will take on #2 contender John Lineker. The other main card fight features a rematch between Fabricio Werdum against Cain Velasquez, with Velasquez looking for revenge against the guy who took his belt. Other big fights on the card include Hendricks vs Magny, Kim vs Saffiedine and Means vs Oliveira.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Ronda Rousey vs Amanda Nunes
This fight is very hard for me to call. There are so many question marks surrounding Ronda Rousey that it’s really tough to get a read on this fight. On top of all these question marks we have to also concede that Amanda Nunes is the most dangerous fighter that she’s ever faced inside the Octagon. Consider that Nunes has finished her opponent in each of her MMA wins, except a recent decision over Shevchenko (who went on to beat Holm in her rebound fight). Nunes beat Tate early in the first round and also has a recent first round submission over Sara McMann. Compare this with Holm who’s KO win over Rousey is actually her only finish in the UFC.
There’s a ton of question marks, but I still feel like I need to lean towards Rousey. She has a massive chip on her shoulders and she should be able to come back fresh after so much time off. If she sticks to what she’s good at and doesn’t try to strike with Nunes she should be able to get a judo throw and work for an arm bar in this fight.
Play: Rousey -159
Dominick Cruz vs Cody Garbrandt
Garbrandt was really gifted this title shot thanks to his trash talk and Cruz’s past battles with Team Alpha Male fighters. Garbrandt is yet to have even beaten a fighter in the top 10 and I would argue that his only impressive win in the UFC was his knockout of fellow top prospect Thomas Almeida back in May. Yes, he did follow that up with a very quick TKO of Takeya Mizugaki, but Mizugaki’s chin is absolutely shot and he’s now been KO’d in 3 of his last 5 fights.
I think Cruz will be able to use his footwork to get in an out on Cody, while avoiding damage. I also think he will be the far superior wrestler and I do think he will be able to take Cody down with ease once Garbrandt starts chasing him looking for that power punch.
Cruz might pick him apart for 5 rounds like he often likes to do, or I could also see one of his punches really hurting Cody, who has been KO’d before, if it lands flush.
Play: Cruz -220
Fabricio Werdum vs Cain Velasquez
I’m one of the guys who still thinks Cain is the best heavyweight in the world. I expect him to win this fight and then I would love to see Cain vs Stipe for the title. Werdum is a dangerous opponent, especially for a guy like Velasquez who likes to ground and pound simply because Werdum has great jiu jitsu, but I don’t see Cain making the same mistakes he made against Werdum in Mexico City. I actually expect a finish out of Cain here.
Play: Velasquez -205
John Lineker vs TJ Dillashaw
That split decision loss to Cruz has really been tough on Dillashaw. Not only is he not the champ anymore and not getting the title shots, but he’s fighting the top contenders, while Cruz fights the guys he can best sell a title fight with (Faber and now Garbrandt). That said, I do expect Dillashaw to piece up Lineker in this one and win a fairly obvious decision. He’s just too fast and throws so many combinations that I think he will overwhelm Lineker, while accurately hitting his targets.
Once Dillashaw gets this win we should finally be able to see the rematch between Cruz and Dillashaw that is truly between the top two guys in the division.
Play: Dillashaw -240
Dong Hyun Kim vs Tarec Saffiedine
Saffiedine is a more technical fighter between these two and he usually lands more strikes than Kim, but he doesn’t have the power punches or the ground game to get finishes. He’s only finished 1 fight in 9 wins between Strikeforce and the UFC. That’s a big problem against Dong Hyun Kim who can not only take you down and win a round on the ground, but he also throws a lot of fun techniques that can do a lot of damage. This not only gives him the opportunity for knockouts, but it also can win rounds in the eyes of many judges.
Dong Hyun Kim has never lost a decision in his MMA career going 7-0 with decisions inside the octagon.
I like Kim here because I doubt he gets finished and he usually does enough to win over the judges even against a very technical striker in Saffiedine.
Play: Kim -130
Johny Hendricks vs Neil Magny
Johny Hendricks has had a rough run since losing the welterweight title by a robbery split decision to Robbie Lawler back at UFC 181. He followed that up with an uninspiring decision win over Matt Brown and then was absolutely destroyed by Stephen Thompson before losing a decision to Kelvin Gastelum. That thing about these losses though is that Wonderboy is the best fighter in the division and Hendricks had a horrible game plan for that fight. And then Gastelum is a top end fighter when he’s on his game, as he showed in his win over Tim Kennedy recently.
Magny is a decent fighter, but he’s very beatable and I think he’s a bit overrated right now. He did just get TKO’d by Lorenz Larkin, which stopped his ascension, but even before that he had his TKO victory over Hector Lombard who gassed after very nearly finishing Magny in the first round, and two split decision wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Erick Silva.
We forget that Johny Hendricks is a world class wrestler, which leads me to think he will be able to take this fight where he wants it to get against Magny. He has more punching power than Magny and even though he hasn’t KO’d anyone in years he still does have the ability.
This is a must win spot for Hendricks who has even stated he will likely retire if he loses this fight. I really like Hendricks here in a pick’em spot.
Play: Hendricks -110
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