The Ultimate Fighter show has really dwindled in ratings over the past several seasons, and this year the need to bring more interest to the show and also the need to find a new opponent for Demetrious Johnson resulted in the show bringing in flyweight champions from a variety of different promotions to battle it out for a shot at Mighty Mouse. Personally, I don’t think this captured the imagination of the public, but here we are with Tim Elliott, a recent UFC cut (after losing 3 straight in the UFC) with the opportunity to fight DJ for the belt. If nothing else, the show proved that the UFC does a good job of finding talent and bringing them to the UFC, but I think people were hoping for a diamond in the rough to emerge (which Elliott is not).
The other fights on this card are half decent though, so it’s not all bad. And yet another title defense will further cement Johnson’s legacy in the sport.
As always I’m going to be using the odds from BetOnline.ag for this article. Here’s our full BetOnline review for you to check out if you’re interested in opening an account and placing some bets.
Demetrious Johnson vs Tim Elliott
DJ is probably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC. He cleaned out his division so much that they had to resort to bringing in champions from other promotions to battle it out on TUF for the right to challenge him. This should be Johnson’s easiest fight to date, but he never takes an opponent lightly, so I have no doubt that he will get the win.
Play: Johnson -1250
Joseph Benavidez vs Henry Cejudo
Cejudo was given way more than he could handle in his title shot against Demetrious Johnson in his last fight. He was absolutely destroyed by DJ and finished just a few minutes into the first round. When you look at the competition Cejudo had up to that point it included a split decision over #4 ranked Jussier Formiga and three other decision wins in the UFC over three guys who are currently unranked. The division is so thin that the win over Formiga did warrant Cejudo a title shot, but that doesn’t change the fact it was a massive step up in competition.
A fight with Benavidez is also a massive step up for Cejudo, and I just don’t think he’s at that level. Benavidez has been the top contender in the flyweight division for as long as it’s been a division. He lost a split decision against DJ way back in 2012 and since then he’s beaten everyone the UFC has put in front of him except for a rematch with DJ. He’s either finished or dominated all of his opponents and I just don’t see Cejudo being able to compete with him at this level. Benavidez should easily keep his top contender status and set up yet another battle with DJ.
Play: Benavidez -185
Jake Ellenberger vs Jorge Masvidal
Masvidal is one of the best technical strikers in the Welterweight division. His problem is that he sometimes doesn’t provide enough output to win close decisions. Just look at his split decision losses to Lorenz Larkin, Benson Henderson and Al Iaquinta, all within his last 5 fights. He definitely deserved to win the Iaquinta fight, but the other two he probably deserved to lose.
Lucky for Masvidal, I don’t expect this one to be too close. Ellenberger is in the twilight of his career and although he did have a very solid performance against Matt Brown, I don’t expect him to string another win together against a striker as technical as Masvidal. I see this fight going very similar to Ellenberger’s fight with Tarec Saffiedine, where Saffiedine was able to pick Ellenberger apart on the feet.
Play: Masvidal -220
Sara McMann vs Alexis Davis
Sara McMann should be a dominant fighter in the women’s Bantamweight Division, but she never seems to be able to get over the hump. She lost a majority decision to Miesha Tate in January of last year and then followed that up with a loss to Amanda Nunes via submission a couple fights back. She did pull out a decision win over Jessica Eye in her last fight, but she really didn’t impress. She should be a dominant force with her wrestling background in a division where Ronda has shown that takedown defense is not up to par. But she never seems to put it together and have a solid game plan.
It’s for this reason I’m taking Alexis Davis, who I think has enough wrestling credentials to keep herself off the mat against McMann and is basically better everywhere else. Davis had won 6 of 7 before taking time off for her pregnancy, with the only loss coming to Rousey. In her last fight in Montreal, she was getting beat by Sarah Kaufman, but still managed to find a way to win via submission in the second round. This girl just knows how to win, which is why I like her chances as an underdog this weekend.
Play: Davis +154
Gray Maynard vs Ryan Hall
This is a fight I’m really looking forward to. Ryan Hall is probably one of the best submission grapplers in the UFC. We saw him rip through some opponents on the Conor McGregor season of The Ultimate Fighter. He was able to win his first two fights on the show via heel hook submissions and only lost to Saul Rogers via majority decision in a two round fight that could have gone either way. That said, Rogers was unable to participate in the finals due to some Visa issues, which allowed Ryan Hall to win TUF with a unanimous decision win over Artem Lobov. Hall hasn’t fought since, which is why I’m so excited about this fight.
Maynard is a very interesting opponent for Ryan Hall. He’s a UFC legend, but he’s getting up there in age at 37 years old and was on a 4 fight losing streak before winning a decision over Fernando Bruno earlier this year. I personally think Maynard’s best days are behind him. He has been going up against solid competition, but 3 of those 4 losses were via TKO, and I’m just not convinced his chin can hold up.
Hall is going to be very aggressive looking for a submission and considering that Maynard doesn’t really have any fight finishing weapons (only 2 finishes in his career – way back in his first and fourth professional fights), I think over three rounds Hall will find a way to get a hold of Maynard and work for a submission. Even if Hall is unable to get a hold of Maynard, I think he will be aggressive enough working for a finish that the judges could potentially even give him a decision win.
Play: Hall +100
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