The UFC is headed to England for UFC 204 this Saturday. If we’re being honest, this PPV card is really more of a placeholder as we wait for the massive UFC 205 card in New York City. That said, there’s still some interesting fights, including a strange title fight between Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson. It may not be legitimate Middleweight Title fight most fans hoped for, but it’s a very fun fight with a great storyline. Overall, there are some solid fights that are a lot of fun and especially some good fights for betting.
I’m using odds from BetOnline.ag below. Check out our full BetOnline review here.
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
It’s really crazy that this fight is happening at all. First a title shot falls to Bisping after Weidman gets injured, Romero is suspended and Jacare was a little banged up as well. He was definitely the 4th option for that title shot, but he came in on two weeks notice and knocked out an overconfident Rockhold to win the belt. Fair play to him. What gets really crazy is that the UFC then goes and passes up all 4 of the legitimate contenders and gives the title shot to Dan Henderson who is just 3-6 in his last 9 fights, far past his prime and has completely lost his chin. I guess it’s a fight the fans want to see, but hopefully they go back to legitimate title fights in the future.
Anways, enough ranting about the legitimacy of this title fight and on to my pick. First let’s look back to UFC 100. Dan Henderson KO’d Michael Bisping in amazing fashion. It’s a KO that has gone down in history and will continue to be broadcast forever, regardless of what happens in this fight. That said, I think it’s important to remember that Dan Henderson was actually a big favourite in that fight. He was about a 2-1 favourite heading into that fight, similar to how Bisping is a 2-1 favourite now. That’s because Henderson had not lost his chin yet at that point. In fact, Hendo had not even been KO’d yet in his career at the time of that fight. That of course has completely changed now. Ever since Vitor Belfort KO’d Hendo with that vicious head kick back in November of 2013 Henderson has not been the same. He’s been knocked out twice more since then and it seems like anything that touches his chin has the potential to finish the fight. Even in his fight with Lombard that he eventually won, Hendo was rocked several times and was saved by the bell at the end of the first round.
So Hendo’s chin is a huge difference between then and now. The other thing that has changed is Michael Bisping is a much improved fighter. It wasn’t purely a stroke of luck that he beat Luke Rockhold and Anderson Silva in his last two fights. Bisping has really improved his boxing, adding a beautiful left hook and also gaining the confidence to sit down on some power punches. It’s crazy to think that the KO over Rockhold was the first time Bisping knocked a guy out in his long UFC career. He has plenty of TKO’s, but that was his first KO. Add in the fact that he rocked Silva a few times in their fight and I think we can argue that Bisping has added a layer to his game that he was missing. He now has the ability to sit in the pocket and throw bombs that look to finish fights. Before he would always be looking for a way out of the exchange which would take a lot of power off his punches. Now that he has this new confidence and new ability I foresee many more finishes in Bispings career and none will be easier than Dan Henderson who has gone from an iron chin to the glassiest of chins in the entire UFC.
Play: Bisping -230
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi
Mousasi has wanted this fight with Belfort for a long time and there’s a reason for it. Mousasi is one of the most technical and calm fighters in the UFC. I expect him to use this style to easily avoid the initial flurry that Belfort always brings in his fights. After this flurry, look for Mousasi to easily pick Belfort apart on the feet. Vitor has also lost his chin of late and I foresee him getting dropped by Mousasi in this one and Gegard following up with a ground and pound finish.
Play: Mousasi -335
Jimi Manuwa vs Ovince Saint Preux
Unlike the majority of UFC fans, I wasn’t impressed by OSP in his fight against Jon Jones. I saw a fighter who sat back and took a decision loss, while not really giving himself a chance to win, not a guy who hung 5 rounds with Jones. I was unimpressed and I think he’s an overrated fighter at this point in his career.
Manuwa on the other hand is underrated. Yes, he’s 1-2 in his last 3 fights, but the two losses were to the cream of the crop in the division in Anthony Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson. Now we get to see him against a very beatable fighter in OSP and I expect Manuwa to bring his A-game in front of his home crowd. I give Manuwa a big edge on the feet in this fight and if he can keep it standing his output will surely win a decision if he’s unable to finish the American.
Play: Manuwa +140
Stefan Struve vs Daniel Omielanczuk
Stefan Struve is another guy who I’ve always thought is overrated. Yes he is coming off an impressive KO over Bigfoot Silva, but at this point in his career it doesn’t take much at all to KO Bigfoot. The fight I’m looking at most when deciding my pick for this fight is the Jared Rosholt fight that Struve lost. Struve was unable to land any meaningful shots against Rosholt and was simply controlled the entire fight by the wrestler. I expect a similar fight this Saturday against Daniel Omielanczuk.
Omielanczuk is on a three fight winning strea kin the UFC and although the wins haven’t been pretty he’s been getting the job done. If he employs a similar strategy to Rosholt I think he can control this fight and get a grinding decision. It’s important to note that Omielanczuk has never been finished in his 26 fight career (including 5 losses), which is simply ridiculous for a heavyweight. This fact causes me to significantly lean Omielanczuk in this fight because he’s a bad matchup for Struve and it could be hard for Struve to finish him early and avoid a wrestling match.
Play: Omielanczuk +155
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