I’m very excited about this Saturday’s UFC 199. It was a little bit of a downer that Chris Weidman had to pull out of his rematch with Luke Rockhold in the main event, but I’m one of the few people who is happy that Bisping got his title shot after his long UFC career and numerous title eliminator losses. Add in the fact that Bisping is still one of the best talkers in the UFC and I’m probably more pumped for this fight after this past week of hype that I was for the Weidman vs Rockhold fight, which I saw going the exact same way as the last one. We also have the Faber vs Cruz title fight, which is a very interesting fight and one that I think might be closer than anticipated. After those two title fights some other huge fights on this card include Dan Henderson vs Hector Lombard, Bobby Green vs Dustin Poirier and Ricardo Lamas vs Max Holloway. This is in no way a PPV just leading up to UFC 200. This is one of the better UFC PPV cards I’ve seen in recent memory.
All of the odds below are from BetOnline.ag, which is our top rated sportsbook for betting on MMA. Here’s a full review.
Luke Rockhold vs Michael Bisping
I’m excited to see this fight play out, but I don’t think Bisping has much of a chance to win. He’s already said that he doesn’t know if he will have the endurance to go the 5 rounds, so he is going to try to close the distance early and finish Rockhold in the first couple rounds, but I don’t think that is possible. If Rockhold can keep any type of distance and catch Bisping when he tries to close this fight will likely end with a KO.
I have a ton of respect for Bisping and think he’s a great fighter, but I list Rockhold as one of the best pound for pound fighters in the UFC and he definitely won’t be giving up his belt in his first title defense.
Play: Rockhold -900
Urijah Faber vs Dominick Cruz
I’m a big Cruz fan and I do think he wins this fight more often than not, but based on these odds I’m taking Faber in this fight. I just think Faber’s power punches can do a lot of damage to Cruz if he can connect with one of his overhand rights. Cruz will be trying to move in and out a lot to get points and avoid getting hit, but he is susceptible to power punchers if they can connect. If you watch the last fight between these two guys it was actually Faber who landed more power punches and came closer to finishing the fight. Dom won based on more punches landed, but in a 5 round fight with Faber it only takes one to land and coming out on the good side of a scramble to sink in a submission and finish Dom again like their first fight.
To clarify, I think Cruz wins this fight about 2 out of 3 times, but with these odds I’m willing to roll the dice on Faber landing that one big punch in the 25 minute fight to finish Cruz, because I don’t expect Cruz to finish Faber.
Play: Faber +410
Bobby Green vs Dustin Poirier
Green has been out of action since November of 2014 when he lost a unanimous decision to Edson Barboza. Before that he was on an 8 fight winning streak in Strikeforce/UFC. The last year and a half Green has been battling injuries so I don’t expect that he’s improved much since the Barboza fight and ring rust could be an issue.
On the other hand you have Poirier who has looked like a beast since moving up to lightweight. Finishes over decent fighters in Carlos Diego Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros and a dominant decision win over the hyped up Joseph Duffy really has Poirier on a roll. If you remove the Conor McGregor fight, Poirier has won 6 of his last 7 fights with 4 of these fights being finishes. I just think he will be too much for Green in this fight and I expect him to add another KO to his record as he moves towards a title shot.
Play: Poirier -210
Dan Henderson vs Hector Lombard
Hector Lombard has moved up to middleweight after his loss to Neil Magny and I think he’s being fed Dan Henderson on a silver platter in this spot. Henderson is a 45 year old who is way past his prime, but the UFC keeps giving him top end talent to go in there and get finished. Henderson has a record of 2-6 in his last 8 fights and his last 4 losses have all been finishes. Belfort just KO’d him with a head kick back in November. Henderson still has power in his hands, but I don’t really even see him landing a punch in this fight.
I think Lombard will come out fast and simply overwhelm the old man and get a quick knockout finish. Let’s not forget that Lombard was extremely close to finishing Magny in the first round of his last fight. I can’t take a lot away from Lombard heading into this fight. He has a ton of power and one of his punches will surely turn Henderson’s lights out.
Play: Lombard -375
Ricardo Lamas vs Max Holloway
I feel somewhat bad for Holloway that he has to fight Lamas in this fight. He’s on an 8 fight winning streak since losing a decision to Conor McGregor back in August of 2013, but because the division is held up right now he has to fight the #5 fighter in the division after just having beaten the #8, #7 and #6 fighters in the division in his last 3 fights. It’s like he has to move up one notch every fight on his way to a title shot. A win over Lamas though will surely put him next in line to fight for the title between the winner of McGregor and Aldo/Edgar, or if McGregor doesn’t come back down, he may get his title shot right away against either Aldo or Edgar. That would be the ideal situation for Holloway, but first he needs to win this fight and I expect him to.
Lamas has proven time and time again that he is one of the best fighters in the division with only losses to Aldo and Mendes in his last 9 fights. That said, Holloway is in that upper echelon in my opinion, which is why he will be able to hand Lamas another loss. Holloway is the more dynamic fighter on the feet and he is very active, which will make it very difficult for Lamas to win a decision in this fight. I expect Holloway to be able to stuff Lamas’ takedown attempts as well, which should secure his victory.
Play: Holloway -305
There’s some other great fights on this card as well such as Dariush vs Vick, Guida vs Ortega, Caceres vs Miller and Reyes vs Dong Hyun Kim. Check out the odds for all of these fights at BetOnline.ag.