UFC 195 was an awesome card that wrapped up with an amazing fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. Many people think that Condit was robbed, and I will admit I had him up 3-2 in rounds, but challengers should realize by now that they need to finish Robbie because he has such a warriors mentality he always has a chance late in the fights. It looks like Lawler could already have the fight of year wrapped up just a few days into 2016.
I was looking forward to the Lawler vs Condit fight, but I’m even more excited for this Dillashaw vs Cruz fight for the Bantamweight Title. Cruz never lost his belt, so this fight will in some ways determine who the real Bantamweight Champ is right now in the UFC.
Add in Anthony Pettis vs Eddie Alvarez, Travis Browne vs Matt Mitrione and Ross Pearson vs Francisco Trinaldo and we have a great main card on Fox Sports this Sunday.
*****Yes, remember that the fights will take place this Sunday (not Saturday) after NFL Divisional Playoffs.
I’ll be using BetOnline.ag for the odds of each of the fights below. Check out our BetOnline review for more info.
DraftKings.com is also running a $45,000 guaranteed prize pool contest for this card with a $3 entry.
Click here to enter a DraftKings.com UFC lineup….
TJ Dillashaw vs Dominick Cruz
This fight has definitely got me interested. You have Dominick Cruz, who never lost his belt, but was stripped of it due to knee and groin injuries just piling up, against Dillashaw, who was looked very good, but has really only fought Barao out of the high end guys in the division.
Cruz has wins over big names including Ian McCall, Joseph Benavidez (twice), Urijah Faber, Demetrious Johnson and most recently a demolition of Takeya Mizugaki in his return to the octagon just over a year ago (before another injury sidelined him further).
I just don’t feel like Dillashaw has proven himself yet. A series of events led to him getting the title shot at UFC 173 (you can read about them here), but basically a Middleweight Title fight was scrapped and the UFC needed a title fight to sell the card. Raphael Assuncao, who beat Dillashaw only 6 months prior was given the opportunity to fight Barao for the title, but he declined due to a rib injury. Dillashaw was already on the card to face Takeya Mizugaki, so he was given the title shot. The rest is history, with Dillashaw looking great and dominating Barao for 5 straight rounds before getting the finish in the 5th. Since this very opportune title shot, Dillashaw has only beaten Joe Soto (who was gifted the title shot in a similar situation and has since lost his next two fights in the UFC) and Barao once again. It can be argued, very convincingly, that Dillashaw’s style is perfect for a fighter like Barao, who lacks a ton of movement, and we really haven’t seen how he performs against other quality fighters in the division.
I’m not sold on Dillashaw. He’s a good striker, with very good footwork, but I just think Cruz has more weapons at his disposal and is a smarter fighter. I could see Cruz taking Dillashaw to the ground, where he hasn’t had to perform yet in a title fight. I’m tossing a lot more on Cruz than I normally do in these fights. Hopefully I’m not wrong.
Play: Cruz +116 @ BetOnline.ag
Eddie Alvarez vs Anthony Pettis
This will be Pettis’ first fight since losing the title to Rafael dos Anjos in March of this year. He was dominated for 5 rounds by dos Anjos, but as we’ve seen over the past couple years, dos Anjos is the real deal. He’s finished both Henderson and Cerrone in the past year and a half, while also beating Nate Diaz and Pettis by decision. I’m not taking much away from Pettis from that loss. I just see dos Anjos as a beast.
Alvarez is not the beast that dos Anjos is and he will not be able to push the pace to find a win against Pettis. Alvarez is a grinder. His fight against Melendez is exactly the type of fight he likes. A grind it out war between a couple guys who have a lot of will, but maybe not the same skill level as the top guys at Lightweight.
I expect Pettis to find his range in this fight and then put Alvarez’s lights out in order to get the title shot between the winner of dos Anjos and McGregor.
Play: Pettis -310 @ BetOnline.ag
Matt Mitrione vs Travis Browne
Here’s a battle of a couple heavyweights that I don’t expect to last more than a round. Travis Browne is coming off a TKO loss to Andrei Arlovski, while Mitrione lost to Ben Rothwell after getting caught in a guillotine choke. Both of these guys need a big win here to get back into the upper echelon of the heavyweight division.
In these fights it really comes down to which guy lands the big punch first. I think Mitrione will come in with a smarter game plan and not get caught with anything like he did against Rothwell. He has the foot speed to get in and out on Browne and if he can land one of his bombs he could put Browne’s lights out.
Who knows, maybe Browne has been busy comforting Rousey for the past few months and didn’t go hard in camp. I mean, it’s possible right?
Play: Mitrione +130 @ BetOnline.ag
Ross Pearson vs Francisco Trinaldo
The first fight to kick off the main card features Ross Pearson and Francisco Trinaldo. Pearson is a weird fighter to look at because he seems to just yo-yo between wins and losses. He’s coming off a split decision win over Paul Felder. I had Pearson winning that fight, but it didn’t look like Felder really ever settled into the fight. Pearson has lost fights to Evan Dunham, Al Iaquinta and Diego Sanchez in the last couple years. I think we will be adding Francisco Trinaldo to that list on Sunday.
Trinaldo is taking a step up in competition here, but after 4 straight wins in the UFC, including a first round TKO over undefeated Chad Laprise in August, he’s ready for the jump.
Play: Trinaldo +135 @ BetOnline.ag
Dominick Cruz • TJ Dillashaw • ufc betting